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Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Berlin State Election: CDU Vote Share?

Volume:
$39,260

17-20%

 - Polymarket

17-20% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 1:49 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

17-20%

View
100%
14%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,582
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 17%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$136
N/A
N/A
$136
3w 4d 23h
Yes
polymarket

20-23%

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<17%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,476
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23%+

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 23%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$10
3w 4d 23h
No
kalshi

At least 25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
3w 4d 23h
No
kalshi

At least 15%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 23h
Yes
kalshi

At least 19%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 23h
No
kalshi

At least 21%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 4d 23h
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This group forecasts the vote share the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) will receive in the 2026 Berlin state election. The outcome is determined by the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) awarded to the CDU, as reported by the official Election Office of Berlin.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket uses range-based questions, while Kalshi uses threshold-based questions, creating a difference in how specific vote share percentages resolve.Hero tip: Carefully consider the specific question being asked on each platform. A percentage falling exactly on a threshold in Kalshi will resolve 'Yes', whereas in Polymarket, it may resolve differently depending on the range.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on specific ranges or thresholds. If a result falls exactly between two ranges, the higher range resolves. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if the CDU receives a percentage at or above a given threshold. "If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by CDU in the 2026 Berlin state election is 17% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by CDU in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by the CDU in the 2026 Berlin state election, compared against multiple threshold ranges from 15% to 25% inclusive. The vote share is calculated by dividing the party’s valid second votes by the total number of valid second votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded to two decimal places. Only valid votes are counted; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Certified or official results must be used unless modified by recount or specific resolution acceleration provisions. If the election is canceled, suspended, postponed before conclusion, or if no certified/unofficial results are available by expiration, the market resolves as No. Any recount altering the certified percentage before expiration will apply the most recent certified figure. All markets share these core calculation and contingency rules, with each market’s Yes outcome triggered when the CDU’s vote share falls within its specific threshold range.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *wager* on, potentially revealing more genuine beliefs. Polling data can be influenced by social desirability bias or sampling errors, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. While not always perfectly aligned, the collective wisdom of traders can sometimes provide a more accurate forecast than polls alone.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Different market structures – for example, the types of contracts offered or the limits on trade sizes – can also contribute to discrepancies. Furthermore, differing interpretations of available information and varying risk appetites among traders on each platform can lead to distinct price movements. These differences are a natural part of a decentralized prediction market ecosystem.

Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political developments, such as scandals involving key CDU candidates, shifts in the broader political landscape, or unexpected economic news, could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, even if not directly reflected in the market initially, can also prompt reassessment of probabilities. Significant media coverage focusing on the CDU’s campaign or policy positions could also move the market. Any event that alters perceptions of the CDU’s chances of success has the potential to shift prices.