TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 11:16 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the performance of the BSW party in the 2026 Berlin state election, focusing specifically on the share of valid second votes they receive. The outcome depends on whether their vote share meets or exceeds various percentage thresholds. Results are determined using official certified data, with specific handling for recounts, cancellations, or unresolved outcomes.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by BSW in the 2026 Berlin state election, compared against multiple threshold levels ranging from 1% to 6%. The percentage is calculated by dividing the number of second votes received by BSW by the total number of valid second votes cast, multiplied by 100 and rounded to two decimal places. Invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Certified or official results must be used unless specified exceptions apply; unofficial results or media declarations are only acceptable under the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions. If the election is cancelled, suspended, postponed before conclusion, or if no results are available by expiration, the event resolves as No. If a recount alters the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used to determine the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Berlin election. While some analysts predict a relatively modest performance for the BSW, this market suggests a potentially wider range of outcomes. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ approach, incorporating diverse viewpoints and reacting quickly to new information, whereas analyst forecasts often rely on more structured models and may be slower to adjust. This difference highlights the value of considering both sources when evaluating the likely election outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different vote share outcomes for the BSW. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, or the number of contracts available at different price points, also provides insight into the level of conviction behind each prediction. Essentially, traders are directly setting the odds through their buy and sell decisions.
This market resolves around Nov 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Berlin state election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share achieved by the BSW party, as reported by official election authorities, will determine the winning contracts. The market will then pay out to those who correctly predicted the BSW’s vote share. It’s important to note that the resolution process relies on official sources to ensure an accurate and impartial determination of the election results.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Nov 20, 2026. Major shifts in polling data, significant endorsements of other parties, or unexpected political developments involving the BSW could all influence trader behavior. Any news related to the BSW’s campaign strategy, or controversies involving key candidates, would also likely impact the market. Furthermore, broader political events or economic news that affect voter sentiment could also play a role in shifting the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding market movements.
