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Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?
polymarket
kalshi

Berlin State Election: AfD Vote Share?

Volume:
$50,356

14-17%

 - Polymarket

14-17% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 12:54 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

14-17%

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,421
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20%+

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,559
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17-20%

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<14%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,707
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 19%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$651
N/A
N/A
$230
4w 9h
No
kalshi

At least 17%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$327
N/A
N/A
$227
4w 9h
No
kalshi

At least 21%

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$324
N/A
N/A
$320
4w 9h
No
kalshi

At least 11%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 9h
Yes
kalshi

At least 13%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 9h
Yes
kalshi

At least 15%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4w 9h
Yes
Total markets: 10

Description

This group forecasts the vote share that the AfD party will receive in the 2026 Berlin state election. Resolution will be based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the AfD, as reported by the Election Office of Berlin.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The platforms utilize different market structures – Polymarket uses bracketed ranges, while Kalshi uses inclusive ranges. This creates SKU risk as a result at a threshold will resolve differently.Hero tip: Consider the implications of the differing range definitions when trading. A result at a threshold will resolve differently on each platform.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket markets are structured around ranges (e.g., <14%, 14-17%). If the actual vote share falls exactly on the upper bound of a lower range, the market resolves to the higher range. "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket."
  • Kalshi: Kalshi markets resolve 'Yes' if the vote share falls within a specified inclusive range (e.g., 13-100%). "If the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election is 13% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes."
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimmen) received by AfD in the 2026 Berlin state election. The percentage is calculated as (second votes for AfD ÷ total valid second votes cast) × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Only valid votes are counted; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both the numerator and denominator. Certified or official results must be used unless modified by the Fully-Conducted Elections and Accelerated Resolution provisions. If the election is cancelled, suspended, postponed before conclusion, or if no results are available by expiration, all markets resolve as No. If a recount alters the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage determines resolution. Each market has a specific threshold (11%, 13%, 15%, 17%, 19%, or 21%)—if the AfD vote share meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot in time and can be influenced by factors like question wording and sampling bias. This market, however, reflects the collective wisdom of traders who continuously update their beliefs based on new information. While polls may show a certain range of support for the AfD, the prices in this market represent a real-money forecast of the likely outcome. Discrepancies between polls and this market can sometimes signal shifts in voter sentiment or hidden information not captured by surveys.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major political scandals involving the AfD, shifts in the German political landscape, or significant economic developments in Berlin could all influence trader sentiment. Changes in polling data, particularly if they show a substantial swing in voter support, would likely cause price movements. Additionally, key policy announcements or debates related to immigration or social issues – core areas for the AfD – could also move this market. Unexpected events, such as a major terrorist attack or a significant refugee crisis, could also play a role.