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Berlin State Election: 4th Place
polymarket
kalshi

Which party will finish 4th in Berlin?

Volume:
$70,426

Grüne

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 5:13 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Grüne

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,818
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Grüne

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,882
N/A
N/A
$1,396
2mo 1w
Yes
polymarket

AfD

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,777
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

AfD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$801
N/A
N/A
$323
2mo 1w
No
kalshi

Die Linke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,403
N/A
N/A
$5,021
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Linke

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,386
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

FDP

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,007
N/A
N/A
$5,016
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

FDP

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,075
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BSW

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,557
N/A
N/A
$5,016
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

BSW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,150
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

SPD

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

SPD

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130
N/A
N/A
$90
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

CDU

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,762
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

CDU

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$57
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

FW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This group forecasts which political party will secure the fourth-highest number of seats in the 2026 Berlin state election. Resolution hinges on the official seat count determined by the Berlin Election Office, with tiebreakers based on second-vote totals and then alphabetical order.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets rely on the same source (certified election results) and apply the same tie-breaking rules to determine the fourth-place finisher.Primary resolution logic: Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the party winning the fourth-greatest number of seats in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus.
  • In case of a tie in seat count, the party with the higher total number of second votes (Zweitstimme) ranks higher.
  • If a tie persists after considering second votes, the party is ranked alphabetically.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Election Delay: If the Berlin state election does not occur by December 31, 2026, Polymarket resolves to 'Other'. Kalshi does not explicitly address this scenario, but the reliance on certified results implies the market would not resolve without an election.
  • Ambiguous Results: Both platforms prioritize the official results from the Election Office of Berlin in case of ambiguity.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon the release of certified election results by the Election Office of Berlin, following the 2026 Berlin state election.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the final certified seat allocation for the Berlin state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus held on September 20, 2026. The party finishing in fourth place—determined by the number of seats each party wins—is the resolution criterion. Rankings are established by ordering parties from highest to lowest certified seat totals. In cases of ties, all tied parties share the higher rank, and the next available rank is assigned to the party or parties with the subsequent highest seat count, effectively skipping ranks rather than allowing shared positions. Markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities) if multiple parties are tied for the fourth position. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked according to the votes they received. Only seats won in the Abgeordnetenhaus election count; results from the district assembly (Bezirksverordnetenversammlung) elections held the same day are excluded. The resolution is based exclusively on the final certified results, not preliminary counts released on election night.