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Berlin State Election: 2nd Place
polymarket
kalshi

Which party will finish 2nd in Berlin?

Volume:
$87,380

CDU

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 4:42 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

CDU

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,605
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

CDU

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,348
N/A
N/A
$1,385
2mo 1w
Yes
polymarket

AfD

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,049
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

AfD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,462
N/A
N/A
$585
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Linke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,910
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Die Linke

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$754
N/A
N/A
$633
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

Grüne

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,004
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Grüne

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$990
N/A
N/A
$448
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

SPD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,407
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

SPD

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,184
N/A
N/A
$580
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

BSW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$783
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

BSW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$340
N/A
N/A
$160
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

FDP

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

FDP

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$220
N/A
N/A
$160
2mo 1w
No
polymarket

FW

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$640
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party A

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party B

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party C

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party D

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party E

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party F

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party J

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 31

Description

This group forecasts which political party will secure the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus. Resolution will be based on the official election results, with tiebreakers applied if necessary. The markets cover a range of parties, including CDU, AfD, and several smaller parties.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve to the party that finishes in second place based on the official certified election results.Primary resolution logic: Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution is determined by the number of seats won by each party in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election.
  • In the event of a tie in seat count, the party with the higher total number of second votes (Zweitstimme) will be ranked higher.
  • If a tie persists after considering second votes, the party will be ranked alphabetically.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Election Delay: If the Berlin state election does not occur by December 31, 2026, the Polymarket markets will resolve to 'Other'. Kalshi does not specify this contingency.
  • Ambiguous Results: In cases of ambiguity, resolution will default to the official results reported by the Election Office of Berlin.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official results of the 2026 Berlin state election are certified and publicly available, expected in September/October 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election. If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the final certified seat allocation from the Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin for the 2026 Berlin state election to the Abgeordnetenhaus. The party finishing in 2nd place—defined as having the second-highest number of certified seats—triggers a 'Yes' resolution for that party's market. Rankings are determined strictly by descending seat totals, with ties resolved proportionally (awarding 1/number of tied entities), and tied parties share a higher rank while the next distinct seat total takes the rank immediately below the tied block. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. Only seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus count; district assembly (Bezirksverordnetenversammlung) seats are excluded. Resolution follows the final certified results, not preliminary counts.

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard tracks the Berlin election outcome across multiple prediction markets, providing a consensus view of the probabilities for different parties finishing in second place. Currently, combined volume across Polymarket and Kalshi exceeds $87,380, with $9,292 traded in the last 24 hours. We aggregate data from these platforms to offer a comprehensive look at where the crowd believes the election is headed. The current market consensus suggests a strong likelihood of a particular outcome, but probabilities can shift as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on those preferences. This can lead to divergences, as market prices incorporate not only the likelihood of an event but also the perceived information advantage of informed traders. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated accuracy comparable to or exceeding that of polls, particularly when forecasting political events. However, it's crucial to remember that both polls and markets have limitations and should be considered alongside other sources of information.