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Bank of Russia rate decision in October
kalshi

What will the Bank of Russia rate be?

Volume:
$15,870

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 23, 2026

Closed: Oct 23, 6:29 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$12,127
N/A
N/A
$3,070
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,850
N/A
N/A
$1,495
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,050
N/A
N/A
$783
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$459
N/A
N/A
$391
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$386
N/A
N/A
$234
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

The Bank of Russia will convene its key rate committee in October 2026 to decide on monetary policy adjustments. Participants and analysts closely watch these decisions as they influence economic conditions, currency values, and investment strategies. The outcome will determine whether interest rates are increased, decreased, or held steady.

Kalshi

The resolution of all markets depends on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Russia following its October 2026 Board of Directors’ key rate meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple policy rates do not affect the outcome. If the scheduled meeting is cancelled or delayed beyond the expiration date, all “Maintain current rate” markets resolve to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring outside of the scheduled meeting timeframe do not impact the resolution of these contracts. Each market specifically resolves to Yes only if the central bank’s action matches the exact criteria defined in its primary rule—whether that be maintaining the rate, hiking by a specific amount, or cutting by a specified margin.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Russian interest rate market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the Bank of Russia’s October rate decision. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how those odds have shifted over time, providing insight into trader sentiment. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,126, and the total volume traded to date, which is $15,870. This allows you to gauge the level of interest and activity surrounding this particular market.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different outlook than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Russian central bank’s upcoming decision. While some analysts predict a moderate rate increase, this market suggests a wider range of potential outcomes are being considered by traders. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured in standard economic models or surveys. This dynamic can lead to divergences from conventional expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the Bank of Russia’s interest rate decision. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements are driven by supply and demand; increased buying pressure raises the price, while increased selling pressure lowers it. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that continuously adjusts to new information and trader sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the Bank of Russia regarding its interest rate decision in October. The specific rate set by the central bank will determine which outcome in this market is considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their obligations based on the final resolution.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases from Russia, such as inflation figures or GDP growth rates, could shift trader expectations. Geopolitical developments, including any escalations or de-escalations in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, are also likely to have an impact. Furthermore, statements from key officials at the Bank of Russia regarding their monetary policy outlook could trigger substantial price movements in this market. Any changes to global economic conditions or major currency fluctuations could also play a role.