TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Economics
Bank of Japan rate decision in September
kalshi

Bank of Japan rate decision in September

Jul 28, 2026, 5:15 PM EST - Sep 17, 2026, 10:30 PM EST
Total volume:
$190,729
Volume 24h:
$18,162
65%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$130,994
12%

Hike 25bps

 - Kalshi

Hike 25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 18, 2026

Time left: 07d:17h:24m

Will the Bank of Japan Hike 25bps at the September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 58% 7 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hike 25bps

Trade
98%
1%
Yes 99¢No
N/A
$87,858
3%
39%
$46,703
1w 17h
active
kalshi

Maintain current rate

2%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$27,730
7%
44%
$18,762
1w 17h
active
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

1%
Yes No 99¢
N/A
$70,693
21%
80%
$62,400
1w 17h
active
kalshi

Cut 25bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$2,695
79%
79%
$2,188
1w 17h
active
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

1%
Yes No 100¢
N/A
$1,753
23%
23%
$941
1w 17h
active
Total markets: 5

Description

The Bank of Japan will convene its Monetary Policy Meeting in September 2026 to determine the nation's short-term interest rate adjustments. Market participants will assess whether the central bank will lower, maintain, or increase rates by specific amounts. The decision reflects Japan's economic conditions, inflation pressures, and monetary policy strategy.

Kalshi

Contracts resolve based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Japan at its September 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate count; for central banks with multiple rates, secondary rates are disregarded. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, all 'No change' markets resolve to Yes, and all other outcome markets resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution. Basis point ranges are inclusive (e.g., a 25bp cut satisfies both the 'Cut 25bps' and 'Cut more than 25bps' markets). Each market resolves to Yes only if the Bank of Japan takes the exact action specified in its primary rule.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official Bank of Japan announcements and credible financial reporting verify whether a rate increase occurred at that meeting. The result is binary — triggered only if the BOJ announces a hike as defined by market rules.