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419,363

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Bank of Japan rate decision in October
kalshi

Bank of Japan rate decision in October

Volume:
$68,450

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 29, 10:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$36,116
N/A
N/A
$23,960
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hike 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,562
N/A
N/A
$12,127
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,277
N/A
N/A
$5,718
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,544
N/A
N/A
$4,216
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$952
N/A
N/A
$297
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

The European Central Bank will reveal its interest rate path after the October 2026 Governing Council meeting. These decisions are pivotal for eurozone financial conditions, influencing borrowing costs, investment flows, and inflation dynamics across member states.

Kalshi

Contracts resolve based on the official policy rate decision announced by the European Central Bank at its October 2026 Governing Council monetary policy meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate count; multiple rates are not considered. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, markets for "No change" resolve to Yes and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to the meeting. Each market resolves to Yes only if the announced action matches its specific criteria: Cut more than 25bps, Cut 1-25bps, Maintain current rate, Hike 1-25bps, or Hike more than 25bps. The basis point ranges are inclusive.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the BoJ rate hike market dashboard shows the current odds and price history for this prediction, along with 24-hour volume of $6,049. It provides a real-time view of trader sentiment and market activity as participants speculate on whether the Bank of Japan will raise rates at its October meeting.

Currently, this market reflects a probability that differs from many analyst forecasts. While some experts predict a rate hike, others anticipate continued patience from the central bank. Traders on Kalshi are pricing in their best estimate based on recent economic data, policy statements, and market reactions, which can shift ahead of major announcements.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result depends on the official decision announced by the Bank of Japan following its October policy meeting, which will be widely covered by financial news outlets and central bank communications.

Key signals include upcoming economic data releases such as inflation figures, employment reports, and consumer confidence surveys from Japan. Statements or interviews by central bank officials hinting at policy direction can also shift expectations. Additionally, movements in the yen exchange rate, global monetary policy trends, and domestic political developments may influence this market in the weeks ahead.