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406,422

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Bank of Japan rate decision in June
kalshi

Bank of Japan rate decision in June

Volume:
$124,645

Hike 25bps

 - Kalshi

Hike 25bps - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 16, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 10:29 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hike 25bps

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25,022
N/A
N/A
$13,353
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,233
N/A
N/A
$24,463
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$22,764
N/A
N/A
$20,050
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,766
N/A
N/A
$16,713
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,860
N/A
N/A
$17,103
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the Bank of Japan will raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its June 2026 monetary policy meeting. On Kalshi, the probability of a 25 basis point hike stands at 87.0%, according to the Bank of Japan's official announcement as the resolution source. The decision will be announced on June 16, 2026, when the central bank concludes its monetary policy meeting and releases its rate decision.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the official policy rate decision announced by the Bank of Japan at its June 2026 Monetary Policy Meeting, considering only changes to the primary policy rate. Basis point ranges are inclusive, meaning a 25bp change satisfies both the "25bps" and "25-50bps" categories. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, the "Maintain current rate" market resolves to Yes and all other rate action markets resolve to No. Emergency rate changes between scheduled meetings do not affect resolution of contracts tied to this scheduled meeting.

Frequently asked questions

The Bank of Japan rate decision market resolves on Jun 16, 2026, following the official announcement of the June 2026 monetary policy decision. Resolution is determined by the BOJ's stated policy rate action at that meeting. Traders holding winning positions receive payouts based on the final outcome, while losing positions expire worthless. The market captures all trading activity and sentiment up until the official decision is announced, making it a real-time gauge of trader expectations for this critical economic event.

Several catalysts could shift odds for a June BOJ rate hike. Inflation data releases in Japan will be closely watched, as persistent price pressures may push the central bank toward tightening. US Federal Reserve decisions and global interest rate movements influence BOJ policy calculus and currency dynamics. Wage growth announcements and employment reports signal domestic demand strength. Official BOJ communications, including speeches by Governor Ueda and policy guidance, often move markets significantly. Geopolitical developments and commodity price swings affecting import costs could also reshape expectations for monetary tightening by June 2026.