TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bank of England decision in December?
polymarket

Bank of England decision in December?

Oct 15, 2026, 7:00 AM EST - Dec 17, 2026, 6:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$14,660
Volume 24h:
$2,583
1,601%
Liquidity:
$4,343
34%
Open interest:
$6,267N/A

No change

 - Polymarket

No change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 17, 2026

No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after December 2026 meeting?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% High Projected APY: 2,866% Low liquidity 55 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No change

Trade
59%
1%
Yes 60¢No 42¢
2¢
$925
$11,348
16%
90%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
31%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
2¢
$791
$1,759
40%
284%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
6%
Yes 8.7¢No 97¢
5.7¢
$622
$603
86%
101%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
6%
Yes 8¢No 97¢
5¢
$1,229
$589
21%
152%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
3%
Yes 6¢No 99.4¢
5.4¢
$776
$362
39%
56%
N/A
1mo 3w 4d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 17, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for December 17, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's December 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Bank of England decision tracks the probabilities associated with different outcomes regarding future interest rate adjustments. Currently, the most likely outcome, with a chance of 59.0%, is that the Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting. The dashboard also displays the current volume of $14,660 and 24-hour volume of $2,583, providing insights into market activity and trader sentiment surrounding this event. It visualizes how traders are pricing in various possibilities.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating a rate decrease, a view that diverges from some traditional analyst forecasts which present a wider range of potential outcomes. While many analysts also anticipate a rate cut in late 2026, a significant portion still predict the Bank of England will hold rates steady or even increase them, citing persistent inflationary pressures. This market reflects a more concentrated expectation of easing monetary policy, suggesting traders may be prioritizing different economic indicators or assigning different weights to existing data compared to conventional financial analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Bank of England decision. The price of these contracts directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates a high degree of confidence in a rate cut, as evidenced by the dominant probability assigned to that outcome. Trading volume and order book depth influence price discovery, allowing the market to dynamically adjust to new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Dec 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Bank of England's official decision regarding interest rates is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement made following the December 2026 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. The market will determine whether the Bank of England decreases, increases, or holds interest rates steady, based on the official statement released at that time. The outcome will be determined by the actual action taken by the Bank of England.

Several key economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in inflation data, particularly the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), would likely cause traders to reassess their expectations. Stronger-than-expected economic growth or a surge in employment figures could push the market towards a more hawkish stance, while a recessionary environment could further strengthen the expectation of rate cuts. Unexpected political developments or global economic shocks could also introduce volatility and influence the direction of this market.