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Bank of Canada Decision in September?
polymarket

Bank of Canada Decision in September?

Volume:
$95,583

No Change

 - Polymarket

No Change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 11:46 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No Change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$56,653
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,812
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,188
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the September 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its September 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for September 2, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its September 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst surveys because they reflect real money at stake, creating incentives for accuracy. While economists and central bank watchers publish rate-decision forecasts through media and research reports, this market aggregates the collective judgment of traders who profit or lose based on outcomes. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus economist views—typically available from financial news outlets—reveals whether the market is pricing in more or less hawkish expectations than the expert consensus.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is represented as a separate contract, and the price of each reflects the probability traders assign to it. If you believe the Bank of Canada will cut rates in September, you buy the corresponding share; if you expect no cut, you buy the alternative. Prices update continuously as new trades flow in, and your potential payout depends on whether your chosen outcome occurs at resolution.

This market resolves around Sep 2, 2026, after the Bank of Canada's September monetary policy decision is announced. The outcome is determined by the central bank's official rate decision and any forward guidance released during the announcement. Once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, the market settles according to which outcome occurred. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless.

Key economic data releases—including inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth—can shift market odds significantly as traders reassess the Bank of Canada's likely response. Central bank communications, including speeches and policy guidance from Bank of Canada officials, often trigger sharp price movements. Global economic developments, commodity price swings (especially oil, given Canada's energy sector), and shifts in U.S. Federal Reserve expectations also influence this market. Any surprise in inflation or labor market data in the weeks leading up to September could reshape trader positioning substantially.