TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bank of Canada Decision in July?
polymarket

Bank of Canada Decision in July?

Volume:
$33,401

No Change

 - Polymarket

No Change - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 15, 2026

Closed: Jul 14, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

No Change

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,518
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,151
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,189
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the Bank of Canada will hold its overnight rate target steady at the July 2026 monetary policy decision. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—no change to the rate—stands at 89.0%, while a 25 basis point increase is priced at 7.5%. Resolution will be determined by the official Bank of Canada statement issued following the July 15, 2026 interest rate announcement, as published on the Bank of Canada's official calendar. Watch the July 15, 2026 announcement for the central bank's decision on the overnight rate target.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight rate resulting from the July 2026 interest rate announcement of the Bank of Canada, relative to the level it was prior to this announcement. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Canada, including the statement or release from its July 2026 interest rate announcement, scheduled for July 15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar (https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Canada resulting from its July 2026 interest rate decision with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified announcement is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed announcement. If the specified announcement is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled announcement, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified announcement will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Bank of Canada Decision in July dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the Bank of Canada will increase the overnight rate target by 25 basis points at its July announcement. The tracker displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $4,459. Total event volume stands at $33,401, reflecting trader conviction across this financial event. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, giving you a live snapshot of market sentiment on Canadian monetary policy.

The Bank of Canada Decision in July market resolves on Jul 15, 2026, following the Bank of Canada's official interest rate announcement in July 2026. Resolution hinges on whether the central bank announces a 25 basis point increase to the overnight rate target at that meeting. Traders should monitor the Bank of Canada's press release and policy statement for the exact decision. The outcome is binary: either the rate is increased by exactly 25 bps, or it is not. Market settlement occurs after official confirmation, ensuring all positions are reconciled based on the Bank of Canada's published decision.

Several key catalysts could shift odds on Polymarket before the July announcement. Inflation data releases, particularly the Consumer Price Index, will signal whether price pressures persist and justify further tightening. Employment reports and GDP growth figures influence expectations about economic slack and rate-hike urgency. Bank of Canada communications, including speeches by Governor Tiff Macklem and policy guidance, often telegraph future decisions. U.S. Federal Reserve actions and global financial conditions also matter, since Canadian rates track U.S. trends. Geopolitical shocks, commodity price swings, and currency movements can reshape the rate outlook. Each data release typically triggers repricing on prediction markets as traders update their conviction.