TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Bank of Brazil decision in September?
polymarket
predict

Bank of Brazil decision in September?

Volume:
$169,551

25 bps decrease

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Predict

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 16, 2026

Closed: Sep 16, 7:38 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$85,644
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
predict

25 bps decrease

View
N/A
N/A
7.5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

50+ bps increase

View
100%
Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,539
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

No Change

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,636
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

No Change

View
N/A
N/A
—
$4,990
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,965
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

50+ bps decrease

View
N/A
N/A
—
$38,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

25 bps increase

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market tracks whether the Bank of Brazil will increase the Selic rate target by at least 50 basis points during its September meeting. The aggregated consensus probability for this outcome is currently 99.7%, based on data from Polymarket and Predict, with resolution determined by the official statement from the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Watch for the official rate announcement following the September 14-15 meeting, as this will directly determine the market's resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use identical resolution logic based on the official Bank of Brazil announcement following the September 14-15, 2026 COPOM meeting, with consistent rounding rules and handling of meeting postponements/cancellations.Primary resolution logic: Official statement or release from the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting

Core resolution logic:

  • Change is measured relative to the Selic rate level prior to the September 14-15, 2026 COPOM meeting
  • Rate changes are rounded: <25 bps → 25 bps, >25 bps → nearest 25 bps (rounded away from zero if equidistant)
  • Postponed meetings before the next scheduled meeting use the postponed meeting's outcome; cancelled meetings or those postponed past the next meeting resolve as No Change
  • Emergency rate changes outside the specified meeting do not affect resolution

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Partial Meeting Postponement: If the meeting is postponed to a date before the next scheduled meeting, resolution uses the outcome of that postponed meeting
  • Cancellation or Late Postponement: If the meeting is cancelled or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, all markets resolve as No Change
  • Boundary Rounding: Increases/decreases of less than 25 bps are rounded to 25 bps; values greater than 25 bps are rounded to the nearest 25 bps, with ties rounded away from zero
Timing: Markets resolve as soon as the official statement or release from the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 COPOM meeting is issued, which is scheduled for September 14-15, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Bank of Brazil rate decision market tracks real-time probabilities and volume across platforms for this event. It aggregates data from multiple venues so users can monitor how the market for the Selic rate move expectation evolves. The view includes current odds, trading volume of $169,551, and 24-hour volume of $13,296, letting participants see where consensus lies and how sentiment shifts over time.

Across platforms tracking the Bank of Brazil rate decision market, current odds reflect a strong bias toward a rate cut, though analyst consensus can vary. Many forecasters weigh inflation trends, growth outlooks, and policy signaling when publishing their expectations. Traders in this market incorporate real-time data flows and sentiment shifts, which sometimes leads to sharper moves than traditional forecasts. The gap between market pricing and analyst views often narrows as the meeting approaches, but divergences can persist when new information emerges outside typical research cycles.