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406,019

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Bank of Brazil decision in August?
polymarket

Bank of Brazil decision in August?

Volume:
$245,256

25 bps decrease

 - Polymarket

25 bps decrease - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 6, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 10:57 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps decrease

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$98,531
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

No Change

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$66,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,950
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25 bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+ bps increase

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,533
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether Brazil's central bank will cut its benchmark Selic rate by 25 basis points at its August monetary policy meeting. On Polymarket, a 25 basis point decrease is priced at 57.5%, while no change to the rate is at 37.9%. Resolution will be determined by the official statement from the Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee meeting scheduled for August 3-4, 2026. Watch for the central bank's announcement on August 4, 2026, which will settle this contract based on the actual decision communicated in their official release.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the August 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for August 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the the Bank of Brazil's August 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Bank of Brazil's August monetary policy decision on Polymarket. It displays the probability that the central bank will hold the Selic rate steady versus raising or cutting it. You can monitor the top outcome's current odds, observe price movement over time, and review trading volume metrics including total volume of $245,256 and recent 24-hour activity of $10,067. These metrics help traders and analysts gauge market conviction about Brazil's interest rate path heading into the August meeting.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and often diverge from consensus economist surveys. While traditional analyst forecasts rely on models and historical patterns, markets incorporate live sentiment and breaking economic data. The current market pricing suggests strong conviction around the no-change scenario, which can be compared against Bloomberg consensus, central bank guidance, and inflation reports. Watching the gap between market odds and analyst consensus reveals whether traders are pricing in tail risks or alternative outcomes that economists may underweight.

The market resolves on Aug 4, 2026 following the Bank of Brazil's official August monetary policy announcement. Resolution depends on the central bank's formal decision regarding the Selic rate target. The outcome is determined by the official statement and rate decision published by Brazil's monetary authority. Traders should monitor the central bank's communication calendar and any pre-meeting guidance to anticipate the timing and likely direction of the decision.

Key catalysts include Brazil's inflation data releases, currency movements against the US dollar, and statements from central bank officials. Global interest rate expectations, particularly US Federal Reserve policy, influence emerging market rate decisions. Domestic fiscal developments and credit conditions also matter. Any surprise in consumer or producer price indices could shift market odds significantly. Additionally, geopolitical shocks or commodity price swings affecting Brazil's economy may prompt traders to reassess the probability of a rate hold versus a cut or hike before the August meeting.