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Bank Indonesia rate decision in September
kalshi

What will Bank Indonesia decide by September 23, 2026?

Volume:
$21,032

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 3:29 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,319
N/A
N/A
$2,713
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,010
N/A
N/A
$2,886
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

View
0%
23%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,624
N/A
N/A
$2,692
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,329
N/A
N/A
$3,173
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,750
N/A
N/A
$2,742
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the outcome of Bank Indonesia's monetary policy decision at its scheduled meeting. Participants assess whether the central bank will adjust its key policy rate by specific amounts or keep it unchanged. The resolution depends solely on the official rate announcement following the meeting.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on Bank Indonesia’s official policy rate decision announced at the September Board of Governors Meeting. Each market corresponds to a specific rate movement category: cutting more than 25 basis points, cutting between 1-25 basis points, maintaining the current rate, hiking by 1-25 basis points, or hiking more than 25 basis points. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed past the expiration date, all “Maintain current rate” markets resolve to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring outside scheduled meetings do not affect contract resolutions. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; for central banks with multiple rates, secondary rates are disregarded.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Bank Indonesia rate market tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to the central bank’s upcoming rate decision. You’ll find a price history showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,065. The total volume traded on this market is $21,032. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities based on the collective predictions of other participants.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the Bank Indonesia rate decision. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing the probability of different outcomes. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probabilities and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the likely outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing different outcomes of the Bank Indonesia rate decision. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by the collective bids and asks. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs, creating a real-time assessment of the potential rate change.

This market resolves around Sep 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement made by Bank Indonesia regarding its policy rate. The final price of contracts in this market will reflect the actual rate decision, allowing traders to profit if their predictions aligned with the outcome. Traders should monitor official announcements from Bank Indonesia leading up to the resolution date.

Several signals could significantly influence this market before resolution. Any statements from Bank Indonesia officials regarding future monetary policy, Indonesian economic data releases (such as inflation or GDP figures), and global economic developments could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected geopolitical events or changes in global risk appetite could also impact the market. Monitoring these factors and assessing their potential impact on Bank Indonesia’s decision-making process is crucial for understanding potential price movements in this market.