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Bank Indonesia rate decision in October
kalshi

What will the Bank Indonesia rate decision be?

Volume:
$3,327

Maintain current rate

 - Kalshi

Maintain current rate - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 3:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Maintain current rate

View
100%
43%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$545
N/A
N/A
$436
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,310
N/A
N/A
$1,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$556
N/A
N/A
$506
Settled
No
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

View
0%
40%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$516
N/A
N/A
$505
Settled
No
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the potential movements of Indonesia's key interest rate following a scheduled central bank meeting. Participants assess whether the rate will be adjusted upward, downward, or kept unchanged based on official announcements. The outcome depends solely on the decision made during the formal meeting, with specific thresholds defining each possible result.

Kalshi

The resolution of all markets depends on the official policy rate decision announced by Bank Indonesia at its October Board of Governors Meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; for central banks with multiple rates, secondary rates are disregarded. If the scheduled meeting is cancelled or delayed beyond the expiration date, all "Maintain current rate" markets resolve to Yes, while all other markets resolve to No. Emergency rate adjustments occurring outside of the scheduled meeting timeframe do not impact the resolution of these contracts. Each market resolves to Yes only if the actual rate movement matches its specific defined threshold — either a cut or hike of a particular magnitude, or maintenance of the existing rate.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Bank Indonesia rate market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the upcoming rate decision. You’ll find a price history showing how the market has priced in information over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $494. Total volume for this market is $3,327. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trading opportunities related to expectations for the Bank Indonesia’s monetary policy.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different view than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Bank Indonesia rate decision. While some analysts predict a hold, this market suggests a higher probability of a rate adjustment. It’s important to remember that prediction markets incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than typical polls or surveys, including on-the-ground insights and real-time reactions to news events. This dynamic can lead to divergences between prediction market pricing and conventional wisdom.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market expectations for the Bank Indonesia rate decision. The current top outcome is not available, and the chance percentage is also not available.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement made by Bank Indonesia regarding its policy rate decision. The market will reflect the actual rate set by Bank Indonesia at the conclusion of their meeting, and contracts will be settled accordingly. Traders should monitor official announcements for the definitive outcome of this market.

Several signals could significantly move this market before its resolution. Unexpected economic data releases from Indonesia, such as inflation figures or GDP growth, would likely have a substantial impact. Statements from Bank Indonesia officials regarding their monetary policy outlook will also be closely watched. Global economic developments, particularly changes in US Federal Reserve policy or major shifts in commodity prices, could also influence expectations and move the market. Any geopolitical events impacting the Indonesian economy could also introduce volatility.