TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Mark Lamb, 15-20%
- Kalshi
Mark Lamb, 15-20% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
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Resolved Aug 6, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Aug 6, 8:27 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
These markets track the margin of victory for specific candidates in the 2026 Arizona Congressional District 5 Republican primary election scheduled for July 21, 2026. The margin is calculated as the winning candidate's vote share minus the runner-up's vote share (or the leading candidate's share if the tracked candidate loses), with positive margins indicating a win and negative margins indicating a loss.
Kalshi
The margin of victory for each candidate is determined by calculating their vote share minus the vote share of the candidate finishing immediately behind them if they win, or minus the vote share of the first-place finisher if they lose. A tied finish results in a zero margin. All vote shares attributable to the same underlying candidate are aggregated, regardless of party affiliation or ballot listing. Margin ranges are inclusive of their lower bounds and exclusive of their upper bounds, with no rounding applied—for example, a margin of exactly 6% falls within the 6-7% range rather than the 5-6% range. Each market resolves to Yes if the final margin falls within its specified range. For Daniel Keenan, markets cover margins from 0% to 100% in three overlapping bands (0-5%, 5-10%, and 10-100%). For Mark Lamb, markets cover margins from 0% to 100% in seven overlapping bands (0-5%, 5-10%, 10-15%, 15-20%, 20-25%, 25-30%, and 30-100%). Margins can be positive (indicating a win) or negative (indicating a loss), and the resolution is based on the absolute outcome of the primary election.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds and polling averages often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture voter sentiment at a single moment, while this market reflects traders' collective assessment of the final outcome, incorporating campaign dynamics, fundraising, endorsements, and ground operations. Markets typically update faster than polls and can price in late-breaking developments. Comparing the two provides a fuller picture: polls show current voter preference, whereas market odds represent a probabilistic forecast weighted by traders' confidence and financial incentives.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different margin outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the market's implied probability, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. The bid-ask spread tightens as volume increases, and real-time price discovery ensures that odds adjust instantly to new information, trader sentiment, and order flow throughout the trading session.
This market resolves around Jul 21, 2027, once the Arizona Republican primary election concludes and results are verified. The outcome is determined by the official margin of victory—the percentage-point gap between the top two finishers in the race. Resolution is confirmed once credible public reporting and official election data are available, ensuring accuracy and transparency for all traders.
Several catalysts can shift odds significantly: candidate endorsements from prominent Republicans, debate performances, campaign spending announcements, and shifts in voter registration or early voting data. Polling releases directly influence trader positioning, as do unexpected candidate exits or controversies. Media coverage of candidate momentum, ground-game strength, and demographic shifts within the district also matter. As primary day approaches, early voting results and final pre-election surveys typically drive the largest price moves, reflecting updated expectations about the final margin.
