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Avocado advertised prices this week
kalshi

What will avocado prices be this week?

Volume:
$1,302

Above $1.00

 - Kalshi

Above $1.00 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 6:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $1.00

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$929
N/A
N/A
$386
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.80

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
$202
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.90

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
$110
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.70

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
$44
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.20

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.30

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.40

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.50

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.60

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.70

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks the advertised retail pricing of Hass avocados in the United States for a specific week. It focuses on the average price listed in major grocery stores, reflecting consumer-facing cost data rather than actual purchase prices. The outcome depends on whether this average exceeds various price thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the same data source and methodology: the "This Week" weighted average advertised price for Hass avocados (sold individually) from the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report published on October 9, 2026. The relevant figure comes from the National Conventional Summary section, specifically the row showing Commodity "Avocados," Variety "Hass," and Unit "each." Only advertised retail prices are considered—actual transaction prices are excluded. Markets will resolve to Yes if the reported average exceeds their respective price thresholds ($0.70, $0.80, $0.90, etc., up to $1.70). No other avocado varieties, sizes, package counts, organic options, regional breakdowns, or historical comparisons ("Last Week" or "Last Year") influence the outcome. All markets share identical secondary rules governing data interpretation and exclusion criteria.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the avocado price market tracks the current prices, trading volume of $1,302, and 24-hour volume of $788. You can also view a price history chart to see how predictions have shifted over time. This allows traders to understand market sentiment and identify potential opportunities. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe avocado prices are headed, offering a dynamic reflection of expectations.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for avocado prices vary considerably. Some predict a slight increase due to seasonal factors, while others anticipate stable pricing. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. Comparing these viewpoints can offer a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about whether avocado prices will be above or below a certain level at the resolution date. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, creating a real-time probability assessment. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards a consensus expectation. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for efficient discovery of information and reflects the collective intelligence of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average advertised price of avocados is verifiable from credible public reporting. The specific price used for resolution will be sourced from publicly available data, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual average avocado price at the time of resolution. This process provides a clear and verifiable outcome for all participants.

Several factors could influence this market. Unexpected weather events in major avocado-growing regions, such as California or Mexico, could significantly impact supply and therefore prices. Changes in import/export regulations or trade agreements could also play a role. Furthermore, shifts in consumer demand, perhaps driven by health trends or economic conditions, might affect avocado prices. Any news related to crop yields, transportation costs, or major retail promotions could also move this market before Oct 17, 2026.