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$134.2b

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2,388,728,490

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$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

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2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Avocado advertised prices this week
kalshi

What will avocado prices be this week?

Volume:
$2,618

Above $0.90

 - Kalshi

Above $0.90 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 18, 6:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $0.90

View
100%
39%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$975
N/A
N/A
$730
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.80

View
100%
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$495
N/A
N/A
$419
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.00

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$907
N/A
N/A
$801
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.10

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$241
N/A
N/A
$237
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.20

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.30

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.40

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.50

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.60

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.70

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.80

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks the advertised retail pricing of Hass avocados in the United States for a specific week. It focuses on the average price listed in major grocery stores, reflecting consumer-facing cost data rather than actual purchase prices. The outcome depends on whether this average exceeds various price thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets in this event assess whether the weighted average advertised retail price of Hass avocados, as reported in the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report for the week of September 18, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds ranging from $0.80 to $1.80. The relevant data point is the “This Week” Wtd Avg Price for Commodity “Avocados,” Variety “Hass,” and Unit “each” within the National Conventional Summary section. Only advertised retail prices are considered; transaction prices, other avocado varieties, sizes, package counts, organic avocados, regional tables, and comparisons to prior weeks are excluded from evaluation. Each market resolves to Yes if the reported price surpasses its respective threshold, otherwise it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the avocado price market tracks the current price, 24-hour trading volume of $1,157, and total volume traded to date of $2,618. You can also view a price history chart to see how sentiment has shifted over time. This allows participants to gauge market interest and potential price movements. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where traders believe avocado prices are headed, offering a dynamic assessment of expectations.

Currently, the prediction market offers a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for avocado prices. While analysts often rely on supply chain data and historical trends, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are actively putting capital at risk. This can lead to a more responsive and potentially more accurate assessment of future price movements, particularly when unexpected events occur. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts vary, and this market represents a distinct, real-time viewpoint.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at any time, setting their own prices. The current price of a contract reflects the probability of a specific outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and efficient market for forecasting avocado prices.

This market resolves around Sep 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average advertised price of avocados is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a widely recognized and publicly available source for avocado pricing data. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 26, 2026. Unexpected weather events in major avocado-growing regions, such as California or Mexico, could disrupt supply and drive up prices. Changes in import/export policies or trade agreements could also influence availability and cost. Furthermore, shifts in consumer demand, perhaps due to health trends or economic conditions, could also move this market. Any news relating to avocado crop yields or transportation logistics would be closely watched by traders.