TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Avocado advertised prices this week
kalshi

Avocado advertised prices this week

Volume:
$2,175

Above $0.90

 - Kalshi

Above $0.90 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 21, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 5:56 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $0.90

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$621
N/A
N/A
$619
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.80

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$414
N/A
N/A
$413
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.00

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$448
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.20

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$246
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$201
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.10

View
0%
36%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21
N/A
N/A
$21
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.80

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks the advertised retail pricing of Hass avocados in the United States for a specific week. It focuses on the average price listed in major grocery stores, reflecting consumer-facing cost trends rather than actual purchase prices. The outcome depends solely on the published weekly report for August 21, 2026.

Kalshi

All markets in this event assess whether the weighted average advertised retail price of Hass avocados, sold individually, exceeds specified thresholds in the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report published on August 21, 2026. The relevant data comes exclusively from the 'This Week' Wtd Avg Price in the National Conventional Summary section for Commodity 'Avocados,' Variety 'Hass,' and Unit 'each.' Only advertised prices are considered—actual transaction prices are irrelevant. Markets do not account for other avocado varieties (e.g., non-Hass), different sizes or package counts, organic avocados, regional price tables, or comparisons to prior weeks ('Last Week' or 'Last Year'). Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported average exceeds its defined threshold; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.'

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of avocado price trends. Analysts may incorporate longer-term supply studies and seasonal forecasts, while traders on Kalshi react quickly to news, weather events, and retail pricing updates. This can lead to divergence when rapid market moves occur, making the market odds a useful complement to traditional research.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the majority expectation for avocado price direction this week. The implied probability adjusts based on trading volume and recent price action, capturing real-time bets on whether advertised prices will rise, fall, or hold steady. This mechanism lets participants express nuanced views on short-term market dynamics.

This market resolves around Aug 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on the officially advertised avocado prices for the relevant week, as reflected in widely accepted sources at that time.

Several signals could shift this market before Aug 29, 2026. Key drivers include weather events affecting avocado harvests, sudden changes in import/export policies, and major retail chain pricing decisions. Additionally, supply chain disruptions or shifts in consumer demand—especially during peak seasons—can cause rapid revaluations. Traders will watch news feeds closely for any updates that hint at these influences.