TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 12, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price of Hass avocados as reported in the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report published on June 12, 2026. The event focuses on the "This Week" weighted average advertised price per individual avocado at U.S. grocery stores during that reporting period.
Resolution is based on the "This Week" weighted average advertised price for Hass avocados (individual units) from the National Conventional Summary section of the USDA AMS Weekly Grocery Store Specialty Crops Feature Activity report published on June 12, 2026. Only advertised retail prices qualify; transaction prices, other avocado varieties, different package counts, organic avocados, regional data, or historical comparisons do not count. Each market resolves Yes if the reported price exceeds its specified threshold ($0.90, $1.00, $1.10, $1.20, or $1.30).
Prediction market odds on Kalshi for avocado advertised prices this week reflect aggregated trader beliefs and often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. While agricultural economists and commodity analysts publish price targets based on supply-chain data and seasonal trends, prediction markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction through financial incentives. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to published analyst consensus can reveal where the market is pricing in risks or opportunities that conventional forecasts may underweight or overlook.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, avocado advertised prices this week is priced through a binary or multi-outcome contract structure where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific price ranges or outcomes. The market price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate of that outcome occurring. Kalshi's order book displays competing bids and asks, and traders can enter limit or market orders to adjust their positions. Price discovery happens continuously as new information about avocado supply, demand, and retail pricing emerges throughout the week.
Several catalysts could shift avocado advertised prices this week and move market odds. Unexpected supply disruptions—such as weather events in major growing regions, harvest delays, or disease outbreaks—can tighten availability and push retailers to raise prices. Demand shocks from consumer trends, restaurant promotions, or export policy changes also matter. Competitor pricing, fuel and transportation costs, and labor availability in packing and distribution networks influence retail markups. Weekly USDA reports, retailer earnings calls, and real-time commodity futures prices provide signals traders monitor closely leading up to resolution.