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505,688

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Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?
polymarket

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of October?

Sep 30, 2026, 8:08 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$34,484
Volume 24h:
$3,736
875%
Liquidity:
$139,758
9%
Open interest:
$7,688N/A

0-5

 - Polymarket

0-5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 08d:20h:20m

Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on October 31?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 96¢ buys you 104 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $104 | Net Profit: $4 Multiplier: 1.04x | ROI: 4% | APY: 422% 8 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0-5

Trade
95%
5%
Yes 96¢No 6¢
2¢
$16,081
$13,680
20%
72%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

5-10

Trade
3%
4%
Yes 4.8¢No 98.2¢
3¢
$20,688
$9,485
3%
13%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

10-15

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 98.8¢
0.7¢
$21,048
$2,197
12%
31%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

15-20

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1.2¢No 99.6¢
0.8¢
$20,743
$2,347
11%
35%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

20-25

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
$20,979
$2,559
10%
25%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

30+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.8¢
0.4¢
$20,673
$2,216
12%
31%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
polymarket

25-30

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$19,547
$2,000
13%
35%
N/A
1w 1d 20h
active
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for October 31, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files. Where an unrounded and rounded value provided by the resolution source differ with respect to the resolution of this market, the unrounded value will be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Strait of Hormuz shipping market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the average number of ships transiting this vital waterway at the end of October. You'll find a price feed reflecting trader sentiment, a history of price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $3,004. The total volume traded on this market is $34,484. This allows users to gauge market confidence and identify potential trading opportunities related to global shipping activity.

Currently, there are no directly comparable sportsbook odds available for this specific market, as it focuses on a logistical metric rather than a competitive event. However, analysts following shipping trends and geopolitical risk estimate a range of potential transit numbers. These estimates often differ from the implied probabilities reflected in this market, potentially due to the prediction market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of real-time information and expert opinions from traders. This market offers a unique view beyond traditional forecasting methods.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the final outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price fluctuates based on supply and demand, influenced by news events, geopolitical developments, and overall trader sentiment regarding shipping activity in the region. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the average number of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the final week of October is verifiable from credible public reporting. Data will be sourced from established maritime tracking services and organizations that monitor shipping traffic. The resolution will reflect the average daily transit count for that period, providing a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Escalations in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly involving Iran, would likely cause increased volatility and potentially lower the expected number of transits. Conversely, a period of calm and increased global trade could push the market towards higher numbers. Major disruptions to global supply chains, changes in oil prices, or significant weather events impacting shipping routes could also influence trader sentiment and move this market. Monitoring these events will be crucial for informed trading.