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Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026
kalshi

Auto-loan delinquencies in Q2 2026

Volume:
$4,739

Above 5.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 5.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 10:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5.4%

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$139
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$22
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 6.0%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,487
N/A
N/A
$921
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.6%

View
0%
17%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,464
N/A
N/A
$852
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5.8%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,447
N/A
N/A
$807
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$140
N/A
N/A
$133
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether the share of U.S. auto-loan balances that are 90 or more days delinquent will exceed 5.2% during the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 93.0%. Resolution will be determined by official data on the delinquency rate for Q2 2026 auto loans. Watch for the release of Q2 2026 delinquency data on or around August 11, 2026, which will establish the final delinquency share and settle the market.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the share of U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent for Q2 2026, as reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit / Household Debt and Credit Data Bank for Auto Loans in the series "Percent of Balance 90+ Days Delinquent by Loan Type." Each outcome corresponds to a specific delinquency threshold: the market resolves Yes if the reported delinquency rate exceeds the threshold for that outcome. All outcomes use the first value reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York for Q2 2026; subsequent revisions will not affect the market resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the auto-loan delinquencies prediction market on Kalshi. It displays the current probability that U.S. auto-loan balances 90 or more days delinquent will exceed 5.6% in Q2 2026, along with 24-hour trading volume of $1,410 and total group volume of $4,739. The dashboard updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting evolving market sentiment about delinquency trends in the second quarter of 2026.

The market resolves on Aug 11, 2026. Resolution is determined by official data on the share of U.S. auto-loan balances that are 90 or more days delinquent during Q2 2026. This metric is tracked by major credit reporting agencies and financial regulators. The contract settles based on whether the reported delinquency rate exceeds the 5.6% threshold, with the outcome finalized once authoritative data is published and verified.

Key drivers include unemployment trends, consumer income growth, and interest rate policy through early 2026. Rising joblessness or wage stagnation typically increases delinquencies, while strong employment supports borrower repayment. Federal Reserve rate decisions affect both borrowing costs and economic growth. Vehicle prices, fuel costs, and used-car market conditions also influence affordability. Credit card and student loan delinquencies may signal broader consumer stress. Regulatory changes or lender forbearance programs could temporarily suppress reported delinquencies. Economic recession or recovery scenarios will be the dominant factors shaping whether delinquencies breach the 5.6% threshold.