TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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August Inflation US - Monthly
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi
polymarket

What will the August US inflation rate be?

Total volume:
$507,551
Volume 24h:
$53,378
20%
Liquidity:
$38,370
55%
Open interest:
$246,462
8%

Above -0.4%

 - Kalshi

Above -0.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 01d:04h:51m

Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -0.4%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$29,745
1%
25%
$17,980
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above -0.3%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$21,691
3%
3%
$11,708
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$13,231
0.57%
1%
$10,946
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above -0.1%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$6,553
13%
14%
$5,205
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above -0.2%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$4,364
18%
18%
$3,588
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.1%

Trade
97%
2%
Yes 100¢No 3¢
3¢
N/A
$61,453
2%
131%
$34,869
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.2%

Trade
90%
6%
Yes 90¢No 18¢
8¢
N/A
$53,339
6%
41%
$18,207
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.3%

Trade
62%
Yes 62¢No 43¢
5¢
N/A
$70,366
12%
30%
$29,188
1d 4h 51m
active
polymarket

0.4%

Trade
52%
4%
Yes 52¢No 49¢
1¢
$4,528
$12,955
31%
127%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

0.3%

Trade
37%
1%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
$5,743
$7,723
81%
187%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.4%

Trade
14%
3%
Yes 16¢No 86¢
2¢
N/A
$73,833
8%
56%
$30,463
1d 4h 51m
active
polymarket

≥0.5%

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$5,839
$25,970
81%
272%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
5%
10%
Yes 5¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$50,961
5%
11%
$37,343
1d 4h 51m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
9%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
Avg: 3¢Max: 5¢
polymarket

0.2%

Trade
2%
3%
Yes 2.6¢No 98¢
0.6¢
$9,505
$5,418
108%
511%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 0.6%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$21,694
7%
42%
$16,191
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$22,110
6%
295%
$15,646
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$9,200
13%
131%
$8,654
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 0.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$4,427
44%
48%
$4,186
1d 4h 51m
active
kalshi

Above 1.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,450
118%
389%
$2,289
1d 4h 51m
active
polymarket

0.1%

Trade
0%
3%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
—
$2,753
$3,253
107%
658%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

0.0%

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,070
$2,587
79%
448%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

-0.1%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,920
$1,644
76%
435%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

≤-0.3%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,398
$1,295
7%
152%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

-0.2%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,615
$1,290
60%
358%
N/A
18h 54m
active
Total markets: 24

Description

This event group tracks the monthly change in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August 2026. Markets are structured around various thresholds of increase or decrease in CPI, with resolution based on the official BLS report.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in market structure and resolution logic between platformsHero tip: Focus trades on Polymarket for directional bets (increase/decrease) and Kalshi for threshold-based yes/no outcomes. Avoid cross-platform hedging without careful threshold analysis

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve based on exact directional change: Will monthly inflation decrease by X%? Will monthly inflation increase by X%? Uses precise BLS reported values to one decimal place with specific market questions for each threshold
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve if CPI increases by more than specified positive thresholds. All markets are structured as YES/NO whether CPI increases beyond given positive values, with no separate decrease markets
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in August 2026 according to the monthly BLS report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the Consumer Price Index month-over-month percentage change for August 2026, rounded to one decimal place and published by the Source Agency. The market closes at 8:25 AM ET on September 11, 2026, the scheduled data release date. In the event of a federal government shutdown that delays or compromises data reliability, the expiration date extends to the sooner of the actual data release or six months following the shutdown's end. The single-decimal CPI value as officially published serves as the definitive expiration value for all threshold determinations.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US August inflation market aggregates data from multiple prediction venues, showing how traders price the chance of different inflation outcomes for August. It displays current probabilities, volume of $507,389, and 24-hour volume of $53,222 across platforms, offering a consensus view of market expectations for this economic indicator.

On Polymarket, odds reflect trader sentiment through dynamic pricing, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts which may incorporate additional economic models or qualitative factors. This market currently shows a probability structure that can signal emerging risks or opportunities not yet priced into mainstream estimates, helping investors spot potential mispricings or shifts in market sentiment.

Differences in user bases, liquidity, and market design can cause Polymarket and Kalshi to price this market differently. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, varying levels of participation from institutional versus retail traders, or distinct order-book structures, may lead to divergent probability assessments. Currently, Polymarket favors Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in August? at 51.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will CPI rise more than -0.4% in August 2026? at 99.0%.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official data is released and verified against credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the actual inflation figure for August, removing speculation and aligning all positions with the recorded economic result.

Key events such as upcoming Federal Reserve statements, preliminary economic indicators, and geopolitical developments can shift expectations and move this market. Traders will also watch consumer spending patterns and energy price trends, as these often precede changes in inflation data and may cause rapid repricing before the final outcome is known.