TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
Watchlist
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
August Inflation US - Annual
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi
polymarket

August Inflation US - Annual

Total volume:
$846,548
Volume 24h:
$107,110
97%
Liquidity:
$36,819
7%
Open interest:
$570,121
16%

Above 2.7%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 11, 2026

Time left: 01d:04h:55m

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in August 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.7%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$42,345
0.39%
0.39%
$26,717
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$32,792
0.01%
0.01%
$16,494
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

≤2.9%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.8¢
0.3¢
$3,046
$2,555
35%
71%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
49.5%
Yes 50.2¢No 50.4¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Above 2.9%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$3,364
0%
49%
$3,336
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.8%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$248
0%
0%
$223
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 2.6%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$232
2%
2%
$201
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
97%
Yes 100¢No 3¢
3¢
N/A
$2,269
0%
24%
$1,427
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
95%
Yes 100¢No 5¢
5¢
N/A
$20,440
29%
180%
$14,758
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
85%
6%
Yes 96¢No 19¢
15¢
N/A
$87,559
12%
108%
$61,130
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
66%
6%
Yes 69¢No 35¢
4¢
N/A
$154,659
14%
116%
$113,589
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

3.4%

Trade
49%
4%
Yes 49¢No 52¢
1¢
$6,191
$34,424
13%
82%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

3.3%

Trade
32%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
$2,967
$18,991
13%
47%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
23%
2%
Yes 33¢No 94¢
27¢
N/A
$173,376
18%
185%
$148,927
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

3.5%

Trade
14%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
$6,669
$14,063
7%
33%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

3.2%

Trade
6%
Yes 6.2¢No 94¢
0.2¢
$2,699
$3,677
28%
72%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$118,865
29%
233%
$102,717
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

3.6%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.6¢No 99¢
1.6¢
$2,906
$3,677
28%
94%
N/A
18h 54m
active
polymarket

3.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 1.4¢No 99.2¢
0.6¢
$2,966
$2,523
38%
72%
N/A
18h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 3.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$54,791
0%
2%
$30,504
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.6%

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$41,072
29%
102%
$35,733
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 3.7%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$5,457
0%
6%
$4,060
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 4.3%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$3,204
0%
0%
$2,834
1d 4h 55m
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,686
0%
0%
$2,079
1d 4h 55m
active
polymarket

≥4.0%

Trade
0%
1%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,567
$4,032
3%
59%
N/A
18h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Above 3.9%

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,904
0%
0%
$1,370
1d 4h 55m
active
Total markets: 25 of 38

Description

This event group concerns the annual inflation rate in the United States as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the twelve months ending August 2026. The markets will resolve based on the official BLS report released in September 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets consistently use the official BLS CPI report for August 2026 as the resolution source, with inflation reported to one decimal place.Primary resolution logic: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Price Index news release for August 2026

Core resolution logic:

  • Resolution occurs when the BLS releases the CPI report for August 2026, scheduled for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET
  • Inflation is reported as a percentage change over the 12-month period ending August 2026, to one decimal place
  • If the BLS fails to release data on the scheduled date, the market resolves using the figures from the most recent previous month with available data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • BLS Release Delay: If the BLS does not release the August 2026 CPI data on September 11, 2026, the market will resolve using the data from the previous month's report
  • Data Revision: If the BLS revises historical CPI data after the initial August 2026 release, the market will resolve based on the initially released figure
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the BLS CPI news release for August 2026, scheduled for September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET, or if delayed, upon release of the most recent previous month's dataOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Kalshi

The market measures year-over-year Consumer Price Index growth for the twelve-month period ending August 2026, using the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Each outcome corresponds to a specific inflation threshold, with resolution to Yes if the reported CPI increase exceeds that threshold. In the event of delays caused by federal government shutdown affecting data reliability, the market's expiration date extends to the sooner of the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US August inflation market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price the likelihood of different inflation outcomes for the year ending August. It displays consensus odds, volume of $846,534, and 24-hour volume of $107,095, offering a real-time view of market expectations versus economic forecasts.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a different pool of traders and liquidity sources than on Polymarket, leading to variations in how risk and probability are assessed. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, differing user demographics and market design can cause one venue to react more swiftly to new economic data releases. Additionally, each platform’s trading volume and open interest affect price discovery, meaning Polymarket currently favors Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August? at 48.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 2.7% for the year ending in August 2026? at 99.0%.

This market resolves around Sep 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official inflation data for the August period is released and verified against credible public sources. The final figure will set the market result based on that verified reporting, closing all positions accordingly.

Key economic indicators such as upcoming Consumer Price Index reports, Federal Reserve policy announcements, and major employment data releases will heavily influence this market. Shifts in energy prices or supply chain developments could also impact inflation expectations. Political decisions around fiscal policy or trade regulations may produce volatility as Sep 11, 2026 approaches. Traders will watch these signals closely, with any surprise deviations from consensus estimates likely to trigger rapid repricing across platforms.