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August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP
kalshi

August 2026 Employment Combo: U3 & NFP

Volume:
$33,601

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above

 - Kalshi

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 4, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 100k or above

View
100%
94%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,433
N/A
N/A
$2,091
Settled
Yes
kalshi

U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 50-99k

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,599
N/A
N/A
$4,492
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: Below 50k

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,439
N/A
N/A
$4,645
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: Below 50k

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,211
N/A
N/A
$4,405
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.2%, NFP growth: 100k or above

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,335
N/A
N/A
$3,002
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.1% or below, NFP growth: 50-99k

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,512
N/A
N/A
$2,115
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 50-99k

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,244
N/A
N/A
$1,008
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: Below 50k

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,568
N/A
N/A
$946
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: Below 50k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,503
N/A
N/A
$950
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 100k or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,413
N/A
N/A
$785
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.3%, NFP growth: 100k or above

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,338
N/A
N/A
$996
Settled
No
kalshi

U3: 4.4% or above, NFP growth: 50-99k

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,007
N/A
N/A
$785
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks combined outcomes of unemployment rates and nonfarm payroll growth for August 2026. Contracts pay out based on whether specific thresholds for both unemployment and job growth are met simultaneously, reflecting expectations about economic health and labor market dynamics during that period.

Kalshi

Each market requires that both the unemployment rate (U3) and nonfarm payroll (NFP) growth figures for August 2026 meet precisely defined conditions to resolve to 'Yes'. The unemployment rate must fall within an exact percentage range, and NFP growth must fall within a specific range of thousands of jobs added or lost. If either component fails to meet its condition, the contract immediately resolves to 'No'. All data is taken from the first official release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, using seasonally adjusted figures. The unemployment rate is reported as a single-decimal percentage, while NFP growth is reported in thousands of jobs. Markets are resolved only when both components are confirmed within the specified August 2026 reporting period, with no revisions considered unless explicitly stated.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the August 2026 jobs market, along with real-time 24-hour volume of $7,736. It provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and market dynamics as the event approaches, showing how expectations for U3 unemployment and nonfarm payrolls evolve over time.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more nuanced or forward-looking view of economic conditions. While analysts may rely on current data and models, traders in this market incorporate a broader range of signals — including recent economic indicators, policy expectations, and sentiment shifts — which can lead to odds that diverge from consensus predictions.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set prices through buying and selling contracts, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate view of all participants. The odds adjust continuously based on new information, trading volume of $33,601, and shifts in market sentiment, capturing a real-time assessment of likely job market outcomes.

This market resolves around Sep 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official U.S. labor market statistics are published and verified against credible public sources. The final determination will hinge on the officially reported figures for both unemployment rate and nonfarm payroll employment changes for that month.

Key signals that could shift this market include major economic announcements such as Federal Reserve policy decisions, significant shifts in hiring trends reported by private sector firms, geopolitical developments affecting global trade, and unexpected changes in consumer confidence or spending behavior — all of which may influence expectations for employment data.