TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether the Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate will exceed various thresholds at a specific future moment. The outcome depends on the opening price of the currency pair at the close of trading on July 31, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different price level, allowing participants to speculate on the exact strength of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar at that time.
All markets resolve based on the opening candlestick value of the AUDUSD exchange rate published by Pyth at 5:00 PM EDT on July 31, 2026. For each market, if the rate is above the specified threshold at that exact time, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The resolution uses the most recent available data from Pyth if no value is published at the specified time. All rates are rounded to four decimal places for evaluation, and any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the outcome.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds offer a real-time, crowd-sourced view of expectations for this market. While analysts may publish target levels or trend assessments based on models, the market price reflects the aggregated bets of traders who can react instantly to new information. This can create divergence or alignment depending on recent economic data, central bank signals, or broader risk sentiment influencing the AUDUSD pair.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final AUDUSD price at the specified time will be the basis for settlement, closing the market and determining which side—higher or lower—will pay out traders based on where the rate actually lands.
Key signals that could shift this market include Australian or U.S. employment data, interest rate decisions from the RBA or Fed, inflation figures, and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment in global forex markets. Geopolitical developments, commodity price swings affecting Australia’s trade balance, or sudden capital flow shifts can also create volatility. Traders will be watching these events closely as they bet on the likely direction of the AUDUSD exchange rate.