TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 21, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The event tracks the performance of the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar at a specific future moment. It examines whether the exchange rate exceeds various predetermined thresholds, providing insight into potential currency strength or weakness at that exact time.
All markets resolve based on the AUDUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a specific threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution. This structure applies uniformly across all thresholds from 0.691 to 0.729.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of market expectations. While analysts may incorporate macro models and longer-term trends, traders on Kalshi price in real-time information, news flow, and short-term economic signals. This can lead to divergence, especially around key events or surprises.
This market resolves around Aug 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be checked against authoritative financial data sources at the specified time, determining which side of the market is settled.
Several signals could shift this market before Aug 21, 2026. Key economic releases — such as Australian or U.S. employment data, interest rate decisions, or inflation figures — often drive sharp moves. Geopolitical developments, commodity price swings, or sudden policy statements from major central banks may also influence trader sentiment and adjust odds rapidly in either direction.