TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 7, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks whether the AUDUSD exchange rate will exceed various thresholds at a specific future moment. Each market has a different threshold level, allowing participants to speculate on the precise strength of the Australian dollar against the US dollar at that exact time.
All markets resolve based on the AUDUSD exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026, as published by Pyth. For each market, if the rate at that time is above the specified threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the resolution outcome.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the AUDUSD pair is headed. While analysts may incorporate macro data and long-term trends, traders in this market price in short-term expectations and sentiment shifts as they happen, sometimes leading to notable differences in implied direction and confidence levels.
This market resolves around Aug 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of the AUDUSD pair at the exact time specified will determine which market position is correct, closing all outstanding contracts based on that verified value.
Key signals that could shift this market include major Australian or U.S. economic data releases, central bank announcements, shifts in global risk sentiment, and geopolitical developments affecting commodity prices or capital flows. Any unexpected policy moves or market shocks in either country’s currency markets are likely to generate rapid re-pricing in trader expectations before resolution.