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Argentina Monthly Inflation - May
kalshi
polymarket

Argentina Monthly Inflation - May

Volume:
$61,582

Above 2.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: May 14, 2:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,713
N/A
N/A
$764
Settled
Yes
polymarket

≤2.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,609
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2.2–2.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$47,663
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,574
N/A
N/A
$943
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,230
N/A
N/A
$503
Settled
No
polymarket

2.8–3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,052
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.0%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$874
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$838
N/A
N/A
$433
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$774
N/A
N/A
$593
Settled
No
polymarket

3.7–3.9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.4–3.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$746
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5–2.7%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$740
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.8%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$644
N/A
N/A
$371
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$629
N/A
N/A
$416
Settled
No
polymarket

3.1–3.3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$621
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67
N/A
N/A
$37
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
$38
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks Argentina's month-over-month (MoM) consumer price inflation for May 2026, as officially reported by Argentina's National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). The markets span multiple threshold-based and range-based contracts across Kalshi and Polymarket, all referencing the same underlying inflation metric but with different resolution structures.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Temporal mismatch: Kalshi references April 2026 inflation while Polymarket references May 2026 inflation. These are distinct data releases and cannot resolve to the same outcome. Additionally, structural incompatibility exists between Kalshi's overlapping binary thresholds and Polymarket's mutually exclusive ranges.Hero tip: These are two separate event groups masquerading as one. Kalshi is pricing April 2026 inflation; Polymarket is pricing May 2026 inflation. Do not assume arbitrage or hedging opportunities. Verify which month's INDEC release you are actually trading before committing capital. Within Polymarket, exactly one range will resolve Yes. Within Kalshi, multiple threshold markets can resolve Yes if inflation exceeds the highest threshold.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Nine binary Yes/No markets all referencing April 2026 MoM inflation with overlapping thresholds (2.4%, 2.6%, 2.8%, 3.0%, 3.2%, 3.4%, 3.6%, 3.8%, 4.0%). Each market resolves Yes if inflation exceeds its stated threshold. Multiple markets can resolve Yes simultaneously. No precision specification provided; resolution source not explicitly stated.
  • Polymarket: Nine mutually exclusive range-based markets referencing May 2026 MoM inflation, with one-decimal precision per official INDEC Consumer Price Index report. Ranges partition the inflation spectrum: <=2.1%, 2.2-2.4%, 2.5-2.7%, 2.8-3.0%, 3.1-3.3%, 3.4-3.6%, 3.7-3.9%, >=4.0%. Exactly one market resolves Yes. Resolution source: INDEC official monthly CPI release, scheduled June 11, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in May 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for May 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on June 11, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader expectations and often diverge from traditional analyst consensus. While economists and central bank forecasters publish point estimates and ranges based on historical data and policy models, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information from thousands of participants with financial incentives to be accurate. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst forecasts and central bank guidance reveals whether markets are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic inflation outcomes than expert consensus, highlighting areas of disagreement about Argentina's monetary conditions and price pressures.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi does not currently offer an active market for Argentina's May 2026 monthly inflation rate. The primary venue for trading this outcome is Polymarket, where the leading contract reflects expectations that Argentina's monthly inflation will fall between 2.2% and 2.4%. Traders on Polymarket price this outcome based on central bank communications, recent inflation prints, monetary policy decisions, and broader macroeconomic conditions affecting Argentina's currency and price levels.

Key catalysts for Argentina Monthly Inflation - May include central bank policy decisions on interest rates and monetary tightening, currency movements and peso stability, commodity price shocks affecting import costs, wage negotiations and labor market dynamics, fiscal policy announcements, and monthly inflation prints in the months leading to May. Geopolitical developments, global energy prices, and shifts in market confidence regarding Argentina's inflation-fighting credibility can also drive significant repricing. Traders monitor these signals to adjust positions ahead of the May inflation release.