TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
kalshi
polymarket

Argentina Monthly Inflation - August

Total volume:
$49,817
Volume 24h:
$2,592
124%
Liquidity:
$11,020
28%
Open interest:
$11,310
0.21%

Above 1.4%

 - Kalshi

Above 1.4% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Sep 17, 2026

Time left: 07d:11h:25m

Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for August 2026 be above 1.4%?

93%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 93% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 69% 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.4%

Trade
93%
Yes 99¢No 40¢
39¢
N/A
$409
0%
0%
$288
1w 11h
active
polymarket

1.5-1.7%

Trade
73%
4%
Yes 74.3¢No 28.7¢
3¢
$1,110
$9,999
10%
37%
N/A
6h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 1.6%

Trade
60%
5%
Yes 60¢No 81¢
41¢
N/A
$1,984
5%
18%
$996
1w 11h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
66.5%
Yes 67.2¢No 54.9¢
Avg: 22¢Max: 41¢
polymarket

1.8-2.0%

Trade
18%
1%
Yes 19.3¢No 83.4¢
2.7¢
$738
$11,993
5%
67%
N/A
6h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 1.8%

Trade
7%
1%
Yes 26¢No 100¢
26¢
N/A
$4,990
0.2%
18%
$2,528
1w 11h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
12.5%
Yes 22.7¢No 91.7¢
Avg: 14.4¢Max: 26¢
polymarket

1.2-1.4%

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 5.1¢No 96.3¢
1.4¢
$1,583
$2,919
15%
96%
N/A
6h 54m
active
polymarket

2.1-2.3%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3.8¢No 99.4¢
3.2¢
$1,590
$2,368
15%
64%
N/A
6h 54m
active
kalshi

Above 2.4%

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 3¢No 100¢
3¢
N/A
$3,357
0.15%
0.24%
$1,562
1w 11h
active
kalshi

Above 2.0%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$2,615
0%
0.78%
$2,030
1w 11h
active
kalshi

Above 2.2%

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$1,921
0%
0.16%
$1,776
1w 11h
active
kalshi

Above 2.8%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$1,782
0.17%
0.17%
$975
1w 11h
active
kalshi

Above 2.6%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$1,081
0.28%
0.28%
$1,081
1w 11h
active
polymarket

3.0%+

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,270
$887
13%
32%
N/A
6h 54m
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
0.5%
Yes 1.1¢No 100¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$75
4%
4%
$75
1w 11h
active
polymarket

≤1.1%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$1,462
$1,350
2%
67%
N/A
6h 54m
active
polymarket

2.4-2.6%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
—
$1,719
$1,223
0%
72%
N/A
6h 54m
active
polymarket

2.7-2.9%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,548
$864
15%
28%
N/A
6h 54m
active
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks Argentina's monthly inflation rate for August 2026, comparing market resolutions across different platforms based on the official INDEC CPI report.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same official source (INDEC) and measurement (monthly CPI change to one decimal point) for August 2026, with clearly defined thresholds that partition the entire possible range of outcomes.Primary resolution logic: INDEC Consumer Price Index report for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the 'Variación % mensual Total nacional' figure from the official INDEC CPI report for August 2026.
  • All thresholds and ranges are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, covering every possible inflation outcome.
  • Resolution occurs when the INDEC releases the August 2026 CPI report, currently scheduled for September 10, 2026.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Data Released: If no data is released by the next month's scheduled release date, the market resolves based on the last available month's data.
  • Precision Limitation: The INDEC reports inflation to one decimal place (e.g., 1.9%), which is the precision used for all resolutions.
Timing: Resolution occurs upon release of the INDEC Consumer Price Index report for August 2026, currently scheduled for September 10, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the monthly variation of consumer prices in Argentina, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the monthly percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) in August 2026 (Variación % mensual Total nacional), according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), currently scheduled to be released on September 10, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the "Precios al Consumidor" option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the PDF for the figure under "Variación % mensual Total nacional". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release, which reports monthly inflation change to only one decimal point (e.g., 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple sequential thresholds of Argentina's month-over-month inflation rate for August 2026. Each threshold represents a progressively higher inflation level, beginning at 1.4% and increasing in 0.2% increments up to 3.0%. If the reported inflation rate meets or exceeds any of these thresholds, the corresponding market resolves affirmatively. The structure allows participants to assess the probability of inflation reaching various levels, with higher thresholds indicating more severe price increases. All markets share the same measurement basis and resolution criteria, focusing solely on the numerical outcome for the specified month.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Argentina inflation market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across platforms price the probability of different inflation outcomes for August. It displays real-time probabilities, volume of $49,817, and 24-hour volume of $2,592, offering a consensus view of market expectations versus official releases.

Currently, this market suggests a much higher probability of elevated inflation than many traditional analyst forecasts, reflecting trader concerns about Argentina's economic pressures. The gap highlights divergences between speculative sentiment and institutional projections, with implications for currency and bond markets. Monitoring updates from central bank policies or wage negotiations could narrow this disparity.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Differences arise because Polymarket and Kalshi attract distinct user bases and have unique liquidity conditions, leading to pricing variations. For instance, Polymarket currently favors Will Argentina's monthly inflation in August 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.7%? at 72.8%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Argentina inflation rate MoM for August 2026 be above 1.4%? at 93.0%. Local events, trading volumes, and risk appetites on each venue all contribute to the spread of 20.2.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official inflation figure is verified against credible public sources. The final percentage reported by Argentina’s statistical agency will set the result, closing all positions based on that authoritative number.