TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
SNP
- Kalshi
SNP - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolved Jun 19, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jun 18, 11:01 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks which party will win the 2026 Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election in Scotland. On Kalshi, the SNP is priced at 90.0% to secure the seat, while Labour stands at 8.5%. The market will resolve according to the official election results as determined by the UK Electoral Commission. Watch for campaign announcements and candidate selections in the months leading up to the 2026 by-election, as these will likely shape voter sentiment and shift market expectations.
Kalshi
The winner is determined by which party receives the most votes in the by-election. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction prevails. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until the re-run election or expiration. Formally registered coalitions and alliances count only if registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline, not post-election governing arrangements.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and historical accuracy patterns that polls may lag. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single point in time, prediction markets aggregate continuous expectations from participants with financial stakes in accuracy. For the Arbroath & Broughty Ferry by-election, comparing market-implied probabilities to recent constituency polls can reveal whether traders expect late-campaign shifts or whether polling consensus is already priced in.
The market is scheduled to resolve on Jun 18, 2027. Resolution will be determined by the official election result announced by the Electoral Commission following the by-election vote count. The winning candidate—the one receiving the most votes in the Arbroath & Broughty Ferry constituency—will trigger the corresponding outcome contract to settle at full value, while all other candidate outcomes expire worthless.
Key catalysts include candidate campaign announcements, local media coverage of policy positions, and any scandals or gaffes affecting candidate credibility. Endorsements from prominent local or national figures, shifts in national party polling, and tactical voting patterns in this Scottish constituency could all reshape trader expectations. Turnout forecasts, demographic shifts in voter registration, and late-breaking developments in UK politics may also influence odds. Traders will closely monitor any new polling releases specific to Arbroath & Broughty Ferry as election day approaches.
