TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$133,388,117
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,436,095,462
405,232
Markets across
30,526
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,693
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 3, 12:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks what Applied Aerospace & Defense's market capitalization will be at the closing price on its first day of trading. Currently on Polymarket, the probability that the company's market cap will fall between $3.75 billion and $4.25 billion stands at 57.0%. The market will resolve based on official company filings and the primary exchange's official closing price. Watch for the company's IPO scheduled for June 3, 2026 (ET), which will determine the final market cap calculation.
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-time trader consensus and differ from traditional analyst forecasts, which are typically published quarterly or after major corporate announcements. Analysts may issue price targets and IPO probability estimates based on fundamental research, industry comparables, and management guidance. Prediction markets incorporate this information but also price in market sentiment, recent news flow, and geopolitical factors affecting aerospace and defense. The market odds tend to be more dynamic and forward-looking than static analyst reports, updating continuously as new information emerges.
The Applied Aerospace & Defense IPO Closing Market resolves on Jun 3, 2026. Resolution is determined by whether Applied Aerospace & Defense has completed an IPO and the closing market capitalization on the first day of public trading. Outcomes are typically structured around specific market cap brackets or binary IPO occurrence. The resolution process relies on official public filings, stock exchange announcements, and verified closing price data from the IPO date. Traders should monitor SEC filings, company announcements, and market news leading up to the deadline.
Key catalysts include company earnings announcements, management commentary on IPO timing, changes in aerospace and defense sector valuations, geopolitical developments affecting defense spending, regulatory approvals or delays, and broader capital market conditions. Competitor IPOs or M&A activity in the sector can shift investor appetite. Federal budget decisions, international tensions, and supply chain updates also influence market sentiment. Major contract wins or losses, leadership changes, and quarterly financial performance will likely trigger significant price movements. Traders should monitor SEC filings, industry news, and macroeconomic indicators closely.