Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:00:26.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T20:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on September 28, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on September 28, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Apple stock market tracks the current odds of the stock closing up or down on September 28th. You’ll find a price history showing how those odds have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,701. The total volume for this market is $1,732. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how much activity is occurring around this specific prediction.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating an upward trend for Apple stock. This contrasts with some analyst forecasts, which present a more mixed outlook, with a range of opinions on whether the stock will rise or fall by the specified date. While traditional polls and analyst reports rely on surveys and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd through financial commitments, offering a real-time assessment of potential outcomes. It's important to note that analyst forecasts and market odds represent different methodologies for evaluating future events.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Apple (AAPL) stock on September 28th will be used to determine whether the market settles as 'up' or 'down'. A higher closing price compared to the opening price will result in a positive outcome, while a lower closing price will result in a negative outcome. The final price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Major announcements from Apple regarding new products, earnings reports, or significant changes in company leadership could all shift trader sentiment. Broader economic news, such as interest rate decisions or shifts in the overall stock market, could also play a role. Unexpected geopolitical events or industry-specific disruptions could also impact investor confidence and, consequently, the odds in this market. Any news impacting Apple's future prospects will likely be reflected in trading activity.

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