TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 3, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on June 3, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on June 3, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Apple (AAPL) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst price targets. While Wall Street analysts publish consensus estimates and rating changes, prediction markets aggregate live expectations from participants who have financial skin in the game. Comparing the market's implied probability of an up move to analyst sentiment can reveal whether the crowd is more or less bullish than the consensus. This side-by-side view helps you spot gaps between institutional forecasts and decentralized market pricing.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the event is priced as two complementary outcomes: AAPL Up and AAPL Down on June 3. Each outcome has its own contract, and their probabilities sum to 100 percent. Traders buy and sell shares in either outcome, and the current market price of each contract reflects the crowd's belief in that scenario. As new information emerges—earnings reports, macroeconomic data, or Apple-specific news—traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down and shifting the implied probability.
The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the close of trading on June 3. Resolution is determined by whether Apple's stock price closes higher or lower than its opening price on that date. Once the official closing price is recorded, the outcome is finalized and the winning contract holders receive their payout. The resolution is objective and based on publicly available market data, ensuring clarity and eliminating ambiguity about which outcome occurred.
Several catalysts could influence AAPL's direction on June 3. Product announcements, earnings surprises, or guidance changes from Apple leadership can trigger sharp moves. Broader market events—Federal Reserve policy shifts, tech sector rotation, or macroeconomic data releases—often drive stock indices and individual tech names. Supply chain updates, competitive threats, or regulatory developments specific to Apple may also matter. Additionally, market sentiment around consumer spending and iPhone demand can sway traders. Monitoring these signals helps you anticipate which way the market may reprrice the outcome.