TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 18, 4:38 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
This market will resolve according to the Close price for Apple (AAPL) on the final day of trading of the week specified in the title (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If the relevant session is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of that shortened session will be used. If the relevant day has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle for Apple (AAPL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AAPL%2FUSD.
Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast for the Apple stock closing price. These probabilities are formed by traders directly wagering on potential outcomes, offering a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide price targets based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ prediction. It’s worth noting that market sentiment can react quickly to news and events, potentially diverging from or aligning with expert opinions regarding the future performance of Apple stock.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential closing price ranges for Apple stock. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders who believe a particular price range is likely, the higher the price of the corresponding contract will climb. This dynamic pricing allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing market sentiment.
This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Apple stock's closing price for the week of September 14th is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will be determined by the official closing price reported by a major stock exchange. This market will then pay out to traders who correctly predicted the closing price range, based on the contract they held at the time of resolution. The specific details of payout are defined by Polymarket’s market rules.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Major company announcements from Apple, such as new product releases or earnings reports, are likely to cause price fluctuations. Broader economic news, including inflation data or interest rate decisions, could also impact market sentiment towards Apple stock. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in investor confidence in the technology sector could also play a role. Any news that alters the perceived future prospects of Apple has the potential to move this market considerably.