TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Anthropic share of spend on Nov 4, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What is Anthropic’s share on Nov 4, 2026?

Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Nov 5, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$265
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$265
0%

Above 29.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 29.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 5, 2026

Time left: 02d:13h:09m

Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs above 29.0%

83%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 83% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 29.0%

Trade
83%
Yes 91¢No 20¢
11¢
N/A
$265
0%
N/A
$265
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 29.5%

Trade
N/A
N/A
13¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 31.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
22¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 32.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
26¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 33.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
22¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 35.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 36.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
27¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 39.7%

Trade
N/A
N/A
17¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
kalshi

Above 41.2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 13h 9m
Active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the proportion of AI development resources allocated to Anthropic through Vercel by leading research institutions on a specific date. It reflects potential trends in AI infrastructure adoption and vendor preference among top labs. The outcome depends on whether Anthropic's share exceeds various percentage thresholds.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs on Nov 4, 2026, measured and rounded to one decimal place. The determining value will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on Nov 5, 2026, using the updated chart data provided by Vercel. Each market has a specific threshold: if the measured share exceeds the respective threshold (ranging from 29.0% to 41.2%), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets operate independently, with each threshold representing a distinct condition for resolution. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Anthropic Vercel spend market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for Anthropic’s share of spend with Vercel on November 4, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has priced over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $0. The total volume traded to date is $265. This allows traders to monitor market sentiment and activity related to this specific prediction.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts, as comprehensive public predictions on Anthropic’s Vercel spend for this date are limited. However, the market reflects the collective wisdom of traders, who are incentivized to accurately assess the likelihood of different outcomes. If analysts were to predict a high probability of Anthropic increasing its Vercel spend, we would likely see the odds for higher spend shares increase in this market. Conversely, pessimistic forecasts would likely lower those odds.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders, and the market price adjusts based on supply and demand. Essentially, the price reflects the probability that traders assign to a particular outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates the cost to buy a contract that pays out $1 if the outcome occurs, and the implied probability is derived from that price. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment.

This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the actual share of spend by Anthropic with Vercel as reported by Vercel. The specific details of how Vercel will report this data will be the determining factor. Traders should monitor news and announcements from Vercel leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential factors that could influence the final outcome of this market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Anthropic regarding their AI development roadmap or partnerships could impact their projected spend. Similarly, any changes in Vercel’s pricing or service offerings could influence Anthropic’s allocation of resources. Broader economic conditions and trends in the AI industry, such as increased competition or funding rounds for rival AI labs, could also play a role. Finally, any news regarding Vercel’s overall market share or financial performance could impact this market.