What will Anthropic’s share be?

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinion. Often, this market reflects a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. If analysts consistently overestimate or underestimate the likely outcome, the market may present a contrarian signal. It's important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on specific models and assumptions, while this market aggregates the views of many participants with diverse knowledge and incentives.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the latest consensus. The market depth, displayed on the dashboard, shows the volume of contracts available at different price points, indicating the strength of buying and selling pressure.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on Vercel’s reported data regarding the percentage of requests served by Anthropic during the specified period. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual outcome, allowing traders to profit from correctly predicting Anthropic’s request share. Traders should monitor news and data releases from Vercel as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Anthropic regarding model updates, capacity expansions, or partnerships could impact its ability to handle requests. Changes in Vercel’s infrastructure or overall request volume could also shift the balance. Unexpected outages or performance issues affecting either company would likely cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, broader trends in the AI landscape, such as the release of competing models or shifts in user preferences, could influence market sentiment and trading activity.