What will Anthropic's share be?

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to specific analyst forecasts for Anthropic’s future request share. However, generally, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst reports. Analysts may focus on publicly available data and company statements, while this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. If analysts predict a significantly different outcome than what’s priced into this market, it could present an interesting opportunity for informed traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about Anthropic’s request share. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges towards what the market believes is the most likely scenario. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth and liquidity, indicated by the volume traded, also play a role in price discovery, allowing for efficient information aggregation and reflection of new data.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on Vercel’s reported data for Anthropic’s share of AI Gateway requests during the month of October 2026. The final price of the contracts will reflect the actual percentage of requests handled by Anthropic, as reported by Vercel, and will be settled accordingly. Traders will then receive or pay out based on their positions in the market.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Major announcements from Anthropic regarding new model releases or partnerships, substantial shifts in the AI landscape, or changes in Vercel’s AI Gateway usage patterns could all influence trader sentiment. Positive news about Anthropic’s technology or adoption rate would likely increase demand for contracts predicting a higher request share. Conversely, negative news or increased competition could lower prices. Developments in AI regulation or broader economic conditions could also play a role in shaping expectations for this market.