TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

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Kalshi:

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Science and Technology
Anthropic share of requests on Oct 16, 2026 (Vercel)
kalshi

What is Anthropic’s request share on Oct 16, 2026?

Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Oct 17, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$4,419
Volume 24h:
$4,345
43,179%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,512
61%

Above 4.6%

 - Kalshi

Above 4.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 17, 2026

Time left: 02d:09h:24m

Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway requests across the top labs above 4.6%

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% APY not meaningful 2 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4.6%

Trade
90%
Yes 90¢No 11¢
1¢
N/A
$40
0%
N/A
$20
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 5.1%

Trade
89%
6%
Yes 90¢No 11¢
1¢
N/A
$8
35%
N/A
$6
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 6.4%

Trade
81%
11%
Yes 77¢No 29¢
6¢
N/A
$1,726
27,389%
N/A
$574
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 7.0%

Trade
56%
Yes 68¢No 38¢
6¢
N/A
$100
0%
N/A
$100
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 6.7%

Trade
55%
Yes 68¢No 40¢
8¢
N/A
$62
0%
N/A
$62
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 7.3%

Trade
45%
Yes 61¢No 44¢
5¢
N/A
$2,066
0%
N/A
$334
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 7.9%

Trade
37%
Yes 47¢No 63¢
10¢
N/A
$417
0%
N/A
$417
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 4.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
4¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 9h 24m
active
kalshi

Above 6.9%

Trade
N/A
N/A
11¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2d 9h 24m
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the performance of Anthropic's AI models on Vercel's platform by measuring the proportion of AI processing requests handled by Anthropic across leading research institutions on a specific date. It reflects potential shifts in preference among AI developers and researchers toward Anthropic's technology. The outcome depends on whether this usage share exceeds various predefined thresholds.

Kalshi

These markets resolve based on whether the Anthropic Vercel share of AI Gateway requests from top labs on October 16, 2026, exceeds specified percentage thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, ranging from 4.4% to 7.9%. The share is calculated and rounded to one decimal place. All markets will resolve using the updated value available on the chart at 10:00 AM ET on October 17, 2026. Kalshi clarifies that it holds no official affiliation with Vercel, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The structure allows participants to bet on varying levels of adoption, with higher thresholds representing more significant usage by Anthropic relative to other AI providers on that day.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Anthropic request share market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You can see how traders are pricing the probability of different outcomes for Anthropic’s share of requests on October 16, 2026, as reported by Vercel. The current volume is $4,345, and the total volume traded to date is $4,419. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and potential trading opportunities related to this specific prediction.

Currently, it’s important to note that there are no readily available analyst forecasts directly comparable to this market’s specific question regarding Anthropic’s request share on a future date. However, tracking this market allows you to gauge the wisdom of the crowd—how collective predictions compare to expert opinions on the growth and adoption of large language models. If future analyst reports address this precise metric, it will be valuable to compare their predictions with the evolving probabilities reflected in this market.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on new information and their own analysis, leading to a dynamic price discovery process. This creates a real-time assessment of expectations for Anthropic’s request share.

This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the percentage of requests served by Anthropic as reported by Vercel on October 16, 2026. The specific percentage will be determined by Vercel’s data and confirmed through publicly available sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Anthropic regarding new model releases, partnerships, or technological breakthroughs would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the competitive landscape, such as advancements from OpenAI or Google, could also shift expectations. Broader economic trends impacting cloud computing demand, and any news regarding Vercel’s infrastructure or user base, could also influence trading activity in this market. Monitoring these factors will be key to understanding price movements.