TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Anthropic market share this week
kalshi

What will Anthropic's market share be?

Volume:
$225,133

Above 2.9%

 - Kalshi

Above 2.9% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.9%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$48,826
N/A
N/A
$11,140
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$25,590
N/A
N/A
$9,143
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22,729
N/A
N/A
$6,927
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$22,232
N/A
N/A
$9,718
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.3%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$21,663
N/A
N/A
$5,767
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.7%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$16,141
N/A
N/A
$5,157
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.3%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,910
N/A
N/A
$8,542
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$15,370
N/A
N/A
$12,933
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$14,670
N/A
N/A
$7,895
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,749
N/A
N/A
$6,328
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,071
N/A
N/A
$6,362
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,182
N/A
N/A
$5,804
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the weekly usage performance of a specific AI model provider during a defined period. The outcome depends on whether the provider's share of text generation requests surpasses various threshold percentages. Results are determined by independent data reporting from a third-party analytics platform.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on OpenRouter's publicly reported text market share data for model authors during the week of October 5, 2026. The resolution occurs at 10:00 AM ET on the Monday following the measurement week, using values rounded to one decimal place. Each market has a specific percentage threshold (ranging from 2.1% to 2.9%); if Anthropic's reported market share exceeds the respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes. If Anthropic's share is not separately identified in the source data—or is grouped under a collective category like “Others”—all markets resolve to No. The platform hosting these markets explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with OpenRouter or the data source, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Anthropic market share tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to the company’s market position. You’ll find the implied probability of different share ranges, the total volume traded—currently $225,133—and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $300. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how predictions are evolving in real-time. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of where the crowd believes the Anthropic market share will land.

Currently, it’s important to note that analyst forecasts for the Anthropic market share vary widely, with estimates ranging across a broad spectrum. This market provides a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd to produce a single, quantifiable prediction. Often, prediction markets can offer an earlier signal than traditional polls or analyst reports, as they reflect continuously updated beliefs based on new information. Comparing this market’s implied probabilities to those offered by industry analysts can reveal interesting divergences in expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the Anthropic market share. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust, providing a real-time assessment of expectations. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and conviction behind these predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Anthropic market share is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from reliable sources that track market share in the relevant industry. The specific methodology for determining the Anthropic market share will be clearly defined prior to resolution, ensuring a transparent and objective process. Traders will be able to view the resolution details on Kalshi following the close of trading.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from Anthropic regarding new product launches, partnerships, or financial performance would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the competitive landscape, such as moves by OpenAI or Google, could also shift expectations. Broader economic trends and shifts in investor sentiment towards AI companies are additional factors to watch. Any news that alters perceptions of Anthropic’s growth potential or its position within the market could lead to substantial movement in this market before Oct 19, 2026.