TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 10:21 AM EST
Kalshi
These markets track whether the average price per million tokens for Anthropic's AI model will surpass various thresholds by a specific date. The outcome depends on verified pricing data from a designated source, reflecting potential shifts in market demand or supply dynamics for the AI service.
All markets resolve based on the Ornn-reported average price per million Anthropic tokens as of the most recent settled print available at 10AM ET on August 31, 2026. Ornn settles daily prints approximately 12 hours after each day's 00:00 UTC close, and the settled print available at expiration may reference the prior calendar day's underlying value. Revisions to the underlying data after the expiration date will not be considered. All values are evaluated in USD and rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a specific threshold; if the settled price exceeds the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise No.
On Kalshi, odds for this market reflect collective trader sentiment about where the Anthropic token price will land by the end of 2026. These odds can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts, which may rely on different models, assumptions, or access to proprietary data. Comparing the two offers a broader perspective on market expectations versus expert opinion.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through continuous trading where participants submit bids and asks to determine the current implied probability. The platform’s order book dynamics — along with trader sentiment, recent news, and macro economic indicators — all feed into the real-time price adjustments that define the market’s trajectory.
This market resolves around Sep 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final token price on August 31, 2026, will be compared against the market’s settled value, closing the contract based on objective, publicly available data sources.
Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Announcements from Anthropic regarding token supply changes, partnerships, or platform upgrades may influence expectations. Broader cryptocurrency market trends, regulatory developments affecting token markets, and macroeconomic shifts impacting tech valuations can also create volatility, reshaping trader sentiment and price action on Kalshi as the resolution date approaches.