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Another US strike on Venezuela by...?
polymarket

Another US strike on Venezuela by...?

Volume:
$2,691,757

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jan 30, 7:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$650,456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

January 10

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$762,710
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

January 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$612,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

January 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$498,642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$167,757
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the United States will conduct an aerial strike using drones, missiles, or bombs on Venezuelan territory by December 31, 2025. On Polymarket, the probability of a US strike occurring by that date stands at 95.5%, while the probability by January 10, 2026 is at 0.0%. Resolution will be determined by credible reporting of any US-initiated aerial strike that physically impacts Venezuelan soil, as confirmed by consensus among major news sources. Watch for any official announcements from the Trump administration or U.S. government regarding military action in Venezuela before the December 31, 2025 deadline.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on Venezuelan soil is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within Venezuela. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of Venezuela counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Venezuelan territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Another US strike on Venezuela by...? event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $146,595. The market has accumulated total volume of $2,691,690, reflecting sustained trader interest in this geopolitical scenario. Users can monitor how odds shift as new information emerges, providing a live window into market sentiment on US military action toward Venezuela through the resolution date.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect aggregated trader expectations and differ from traditional polling in key ways. Markets incorporate real-time information, financial incentives for accuracy, and forward-looking sentiment, whereas polls capture static snapshots of public opinion at a single moment. The Another US strike on Venezuela by...? market allows traders to price in geopolitical developments, diplomatic signals, and military posturing that may not yet appear in survey data. This makes prediction markets particularly valuable for assessing low-probability, high-impact events where polling sample sizes are often too small to be reliable.

The Another US strike on Venezuela by...? market resolves on Jan 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on whether a US military strike against Venezuela occurs before that date. The outcome is determined by verifiable reports of direct US military action, including airstrikes, missile launches, or armed incursions into Venezuelan territory. Traders should monitor official government statements, credible news sources, and international reporting to assess the likelihood of such an event. The binary nature of the market means resolution is either yes or no based on whether the triggering event occurs within the specified timeframe.

Several catalysts could shift odds on this market. Escalations in US-Venezuela diplomatic tensions, military posturing near Venezuelan airspace, or statements from US leadership regarding intervention would likely increase probability. Conversely, diplomatic breakthroughs, negotiated settlements, or international pressure against military action could decrease odds. Changes in Venezuelan government behavior, regional instability, or humanitarian crises might also influence trader expectations. Economic sanctions announcements, Congressional statements on Venezuela policy, and developments in neighboring countries like Colombia or Guyana could provide additional signals. Traders should monitor news from Washington, Caracas, and regional capitals closely through Jan 31, 2026.