TOTAL VOLUME:

$143b

24H VOL:

$111,424,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,676,623,266

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,630,632,565

494,234

Markets across

37,330

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,871

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?
polymarket

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

Jun 11, 2026, 9:52 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 AM EST
Total volume:
$108,012
Volume 24h:
$20,196
3,459%
Liquidity:
$21,087
10%
Open interest:
$9,274N/A

September 30

 - Polymarket

September 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?

3%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 5.4¢ buys you 1,852 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $1,852 | Net Profit: $1,752 Multiplier: 18.52x | ROI: 1,752% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

September 30

Trade
3%
Yes 5.4¢No 98.5¢
3.9¢
$10,476
$30,641
0.17%
0.2%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

August 31

Trade
1%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.9¢
2.4¢
$10,611
$29,917
0.47%
2%
N/A
0d 0h 0m
disputed
polymarket

October 31

View
100%
77%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.4¢
N/A
$27,570
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 5h
Yes
polymarket

July 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,813
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,072
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered. Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe. An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections. Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Cloudflare incident market tracks the current odds of a critical incident occurring by November 1, 2026. You can view the price history, illustrating how traders’ beliefs have shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume, which currently stands at $51. Total volume traded in this market is $108,012. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment regarding the potential for another significant disruption to Cloudflare’s services and allows users to assess the intensity of trading activity.

Currently, it's difficult to draw direct comparisons between this market and traditional polling data, as predicting infrastructure failures isn't a common subject for public opinion surveys. However, assessing expert opinions and industry analyses suggests a moderate level of concern regarding the ongoing risk of cyberattacks and service disruptions affecting major cloud providers. This market allows for a more quantifiable assessment of that risk, aggregating the informed opinions of many traders. The current price reflects a collective judgment that may differ from, or align with, expert forecasts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the likelihood of a critical Cloudflare incident before the resolution date. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates that traders collectively assign a probability of 3.5% to the event happening, based on the volume of trading and the bids/asks in the order book. This dynamic pricing ensures the market remains responsive to new information and evolving perceptions of risk.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the occurrence (or non-occurrence) of a critical Cloudflare incident is verifiable from credible public reporting. A 'critical incident' will be determined based on widespread, significant disruption to Cloudflare’s services, affecting a substantial number of users and applications. The resolution will rely on publicly available information from Cloudflare itself, reputable news sources, and independent cybersecurity analyses, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event’s impact.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Major cybersecurity breaches affecting other large cloud providers would likely increase concern and drive up the price. Conversely, successful security upgrades and proactive measures announced by Cloudflare could lower the perceived risk. Geopolitical events, such as increased state-sponsored hacking activity, could also shift market sentiment. Finally, any public statements from Cloudflare regarding vulnerabilities or incident preparedness could have a substantial impact on trading activity and the overall price of this market.