TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$113,466,932

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,423,222,590

402,751

Markets across

30,217

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,632

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?
polymarket

Another 7.0 or above earthquake by...?

Volume:
$58,891

June 30

 - Polymarket

June 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 9, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,294
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

May 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,297
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,052
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks whether one or more earthquakes measuring 7.0 magnitude or higher will strike anywhere on Earth by June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of at least one such seismic event occurring by that date stands at 71.0%, with a secondary outcome of 10.5% probability for occurrence by May 30, 2026. Resolution will be determined by the United States Geological Survey Earthquake Hazards Program, which maintains the authoritative record of significant global seismic activity. Watch for any magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes registered on the USGS database through the June 30, 2026 deadline, as each qualifying event will trigger a 24-hour review period before final market settlement.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether a magnitude 7.0 or above earthquake has occurred anywhere on Earth during the event window. Resolution hinges on verified seismic data from recognized monitoring agencies. Traders holding yes shares profit if the threshold is met; those holding no shares profit if it is not. The binary structure means there is no partial payout—the event either happens or it does not. Clarity on the exact resolution criteria and data source is essential for traders to understand their exposure and plan accordingly.

Several factors could shift odds significantly. Major seismic events, foreshocks, or unusual geological activity in high-risk zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, Japan, or California would likely increase the yes probability. Conversely, extended periods of seismic calm might lower it. Scientific publications on earthquake forecasting, updated USGS hazard assessments, or volcanic activity could influence trader sentiment. Media coverage of earthquake preparedness or recent smaller quakes may also drive trading volume and price movement. As May 31, 2026 approaches, the market will reflect cumulative seismic data and evolving risk assessments, making real-time monitoring of geological news critical for active traders.