This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on September 21, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Amazon stock market tracks the current odds of the stock closing up or down on September 21. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,725. Total volume for this market is $2,116. This provides a clear visualization of market sentiment and activity surrounding Amazon's potential price movement. The dashboard is updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares representing their predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for Amazon. While analysts often provide price targets and ratings based on fundamental and technical analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of individuals betting their capital on a specific outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, risk tolerance, or simply varying interpretations of the same data. It's valuable to consider both viewpoints when forming your own assessment of Amazon’s future performance.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Amazon’s stock will be up or down on September 21. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy shares indicating an expected price increase, the price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market odds reflect the most up-to-date collective intelligence.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the closing price of Amazon (AMZN) stock on September 21 will be compared to its opening price on the same day. If the closing price is higher, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; if it's lower or equal, the 'Down' outcome will be declared. This determination is based on standard financial market data and is not reliant on any specific internal source.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 21, 2026. Major announcements from Amazon regarding earnings, new product launches, or significant partnerships would likely cause price fluctuations. Broader economic news, such as inflation reports or interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve, could also impact market sentiment toward Amazon and its stock. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in consumer spending patterns could also play a role, influencing traders’ predictions and the overall odds in this market.

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