TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$103,397,351
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,410,176,180
399,592
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,622
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 17, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 17, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on June 17, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds and traditional analyst forecasts operate on different timescales and methodologies. Analysts typically publish quarterly or annual price targets based on fundamental research, earnings models, and industry trends. This market, by contrast, aggregates real-time trader sentiment focused on a single day's price movement, making it more responsive to breaking news, earnings surprises, or macroeconomic shifts. While analyst targets reflect long-term conviction, prediction market odds capture short-term probability assessments. Both perspectives offer value: analysts provide deep-dive research, while markets reveal what informed traders believe will happen in the immediate term.
On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of each outcome—Up or Down. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the implied probability; a share trading at 0.65 means the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. As new information arrives or trader sentiment shifts, prices adjust in real time. Higher trading volume typically narrows the bid-ask spread and increases price efficiency. You can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, allowing you to profit from accurate predictions or cut losses if your thesis changes.
This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once the trading day concludes and AMZN's closing price is finalized. The outcome is determined by comparing the closing price on that date to the previous trading day's close. If AMZN closes higher, the Up outcome wins; if it closes lower or flat, Down wins. The result is verified against credible public sources such as major financial data providers or official exchange records. Once confirmed, winning shares pay out in full and losing shares expire worthless.
Several catalysts could shift odds significantly before June 17. Earnings announcements, guidance revisions, or major product launches from Amazon would likely trigger sharp moves. Broader market events—Federal Reserve policy decisions, tech sector rallies or selloffs, or macroeconomic data—can also influence large-cap stocks like AMZN. Competitive news, regulatory developments, or changes in cloud computing demand could sway sentiment. Intraday volatility, short-squeeze activity, or unusual options positioning may create temporary price swings. Traders monitoring this market should watch financial news, earnings calendars, and technical support/resistance levels to anticipate momentum shifts.