This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on July 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on July 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Amazon stock price market dashboard displays real-time odds on whether AMZN will close higher or lower on July 9. Traders can monitor the current probability assigned to each outcome, along with historical price movements and trading activity. The dashboard provides a transparent view of how the market is pricing the directional move, updated continuously as new trades flow in. This lets participants track sentiment shifts and liquidity depth throughout the event window.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders and often diverge from traditional analyst price targets or consensus estimates. While Wall Street forecasts rely on fundamental analysis and earnings models, this market aggregates the collective judgment of participants who have financial skin in the game. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd sees opportunity or risk that analysts may have overlooked. Both signals matter: analyst reports provide detailed reasoning, while market odds capture forward-looking sentiment with immediate feedback.

On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the price of each share reflecting its implied probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price moves in real time as new orders arrive, allowing participants to enter or exit positions at any time before the event closes. Liquidity and trading volume influence how tightly the odds are quoted. Traders profit by correctly predicting the direction of the stock, with payouts determined by the final outcome once verified.

This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether AMZN closes above or below its opening price on that date. Once the market close data is finalized and independently verified, the winning outcome is locked in and payouts are distributed to holders of the correct shares. Participants should monitor official market data sources as the event date approaches.

Key catalysts include Amazon earnings announcements, changes to interest rate expectations, broader tech sector momentum, and macroeconomic data releases. Company-specific news such as regulatory developments, leadership changes, or strategic announcements can also shift trader sentiment. Market-wide volatility, shifts in investor risk appetite, and movements in major indices like the Nasdaq often influence individual stock prices. Traders monitoring this market should watch financial news, earnings calendars, and economic indicators that historically move large-cap tech stocks.

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