TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA

Science and Technology

limitless

polymarket

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 13?

Volume:

$4,920

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 13?

- Polymarket

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 13? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 13, 4:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

polymarket

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down on July 13?

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

0.1¢

N/A

$2,493

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

Yes

limitless

Amazon (AMZN) Up or Down - Daily

100%

Yes 100¢

No 0¢

-40.9¢

N/A

$2,427

N/A

N/A

N/A

Settled

No

Total markets: 2

Description

This event group tracks whether Amazon (AMZN) stock closes higher or lower on July 13, 2026 compared to the most recent prior trading day. Both markets use Pyth as the primary data source and apply identical comparison logic, with fallback procedures for data gaps or corporate actions.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms use identical resolution logic: Up if July 13 close > prior trading day close, Down otherwise, with Pyth as primary source and matching fallback procedures.Primary resolution logic: Pyth AMZN/USD price feed, specifically the Close value of the 1-minute candle at end of regular trading hours (4:00 PM ET) on the primary exchange.

Core resolution logic:

Resolve to Up if AMZN close on July 13, 2026 is strictly higher than the close on the most recent prior trading day.
Resolve to Down if AMZN close on July 13, 2026 is lower than or equal to the close on the most recent prior trading day.
Prior trading day is determined by working backward from July 13 to the most recent day the market was open (typically July 10 if July 11-12 are weekend/holiday).
Use Pyth Close value from the final 1-minute candle of regular trading hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) on the primary exchange.
If Pyth Close is unavailable for a relevant day, use the last valid Pyth price during that day's regular trading hours.
If no valid Pyth price exists due to outage or technical failure, use the official closing price published by the primary exchange.
Apply split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth if any corporate action occurs during the relevant timeframe.
If AMZN does not trade at all during regular session on July 13, resolve to Down (Limitless) or 50-50 (Polymarket) - see edge cases.

Edge cases & clarifications:

No Trading Activity on July 13: Polymarket resolves 50-50 if AMZN does not trade during regular session. Limitless resolves to Down. This is a minor divergence in tail-risk handling but does not affect normal market resolution.
Exact Price Equality: Polymarket resolves 50-50 if July 13 close equals prior day close. Limitless resolves to Down (since the condition is strictly higher, not equal or higher). This is a minor divergence.
Pyth Data Unavailability: Both platforms fall back to the last valid Pyth price during regular trading hours, then to official exchange closing price if no Pyth data exists for that day.
Stock Split or Corporate Action: Both platforms use split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth to ensure comparability across the event window.
Prior Trading Day Determination: Both platforms correctly identify the most recent prior trading day by working backward from July 13, accounting for weekends and market holidays (e.g., if July 11-12 are non-trading days, July 10 is the prior day).

Timing: Resolution occurs after market close on July 13, 2026 (4:00 PM ET), when the final Pyth Close value for that day becomes available.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on July 13, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on July 13, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.AMZN%2FUSD?t=1773432000).

Limitless

This market will resolve to "Up" if the price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) on July 13, 2026 is strictly higher than the price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) on the most recent prior trading day. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The price for Amazon (Pyth AMZN/USD) captured on July 10, 2026 was $245.27600. Resolution source: Pyth AMZN/USD price feed. Other exchanges, spot markets, and oracles will not be used. For example, a Monday market would ordinarily compare Monday's price with the previous Friday's price, unless that Friday was a market holiday. In that case, it would compare against Thursday's price, or the next most recent trading day. If Amazon (AMZN) does not trade at all during the regular session on July 13, 2026, this market will resolve to "Down". For a standard full trading session, the price for that trading day refers to the Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either relevant trading day has no valid Pyth price at the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the last valid Pyth price published during that day's regular trading hours will be used as the effective price for that day. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official price published by the primary exchange on which AMZN is listed will be used to determine the price for that day. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting AMZN during the relevant time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.

Frequently asked questions

The Amazon stock direction market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Limitless on whether AMZN will close higher or lower on July 13. This market reflects real-time consensus from thousands of participants pricing in earnings reports, macroeconomic shifts, sector momentum, and company-specific news. By tracking both venues simultaneously, you gain insight into how different prediction communities assess the same event, revealing where conviction is strongest and where disagreement persists. The combined volume across platforms shows overall market engagement with this specific price-direction question.

Prediction markets like this one differ fundamentally from traditional analyst price targets. Here, traders stake real capital on discrete outcomes, creating immediate financial incentives to price information accurately. Analysts typically issue longer-term targets with qualitative reasoning; prediction markets compress that into a single probability for a defined event. This market's odds reflect what informed traders believe will happen by the close on July 13, often incorporating signals—earnings surprises, Fed announcements, sector rotation—faster than consensus estimates update. Comparing the two reveals whether Wall Street and the prediction community agree on near-term direction.