TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 10, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Amazon (AMZN) on the final day of trading of the specified week (normally Friday). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the final session of the week is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance. The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Yahoo Finance after any adjustments have been applied. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Amazon (AMZN) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst price targets because they reflect real-money incentives and live market dynamics rather than periodic research updates. While Wall Street analysts may publish quarterly or event-driven forecasts, this market aggregates continuous trader bets on the actual closing price, capturing intraday sentiment shifts and breaking news faster. Comparing the two can reveal whether professional consensus is more bullish or bearish than the crowd of prediction market participants, offering a useful cross-check on directional bias.
On Polymarket, traders buy and sell shares representing different price outcomes, with the share price reflecting the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market uses an automated market maker (AMM) model, meaning prices adjust continuously as traders place orders, and liquidity is provided by the protocol itself. Your potential profit or loss depends on the final closing price verified against public market data—if you hold a winning outcome share, you receive the full payout.
This market resolves around Jul 10, 2026, once the final trading day of the week concludes and Amazon's official closing price is confirmed. The outcome is determined by where AMZN actually closes on that date, verified against credible public financial sources. Traders holding shares in the correct price bracket receive their payout proportionally, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is automatic once the closing price is finalized and recorded.
Earnings announcements, regulatory news, macroeconomic data, and shifts in tech sector sentiment can all drive significant price swings in this market. Quarterly earnings surprises, changes to AWS guidance, antitrust developments, or broader market corrections would likely trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, Fed policy signals, consumer spending reports, and competitive pressures from other cloud providers can influence trader positioning. Monitoring financial news and Amazon-specific catalysts throughout the week is key to understanding how odds may shift before settlement.